Have you ever had a horse you're following put in a bad run, so you ignore it next start only to see it win at a great price?

In this interview on RSN - Radio & Sport conducted by Nadia Horne, Dean Evans covers some reasons to consider forgiving a horse when they put in a bad run.
 

Read the transcription here:

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy is talking about some reasons for why we forgive a horse for a bad run and some of the things we should take into consideration. Dean, you just simply can't pan a horse because they have put in a bad performance?
Dean Evans: Absolutely not. One good angle to getting an edge is overlooking a performance that was too bad to be true. Horses aren’t machines, and yet there are times where the market writes off a horse after just one bad run.
Nadia Horne: Ok let's talk about some of the examples, as we've just learnt through having a chat and follow up is Moment Of Change suffered an injury on Saturday, he has torn a muscle, so that's one of the main reasons why you would forgive that performance
Dean Evans: Absolutely yes. There are times when a horse suffers an injury to some degree during a race (they can get galloped on, they can pull up lame, they can have abrasions, or get ‘thumps’ or have a cardiac arrythmia). One great example was Mon Mekki. This was actually in 2002 but I’ll never forget it. It had actually won three starts in a row and then ran a long last at Eagle Farm in a lead up run to the Oaks, but pulled up suffering from a Cardiac Arrythmia, and then came out in the Oaks and won at 100/1 and I remember because I backed it. I’ve over the years seen plenty of other horses run way down the track due to thumps, cardiac arrhythmia or pulling up lame and then come out and win next start at big odds, so often you simply have to put a complete line through those runs, pretend they never happened, and assess on prior form.
Nadia Horne: What about distance, how important is that?
Dean Evans: Well, the key here is, many horses have a peak distance range that is actually a lot narrower than most punters appreciate. So some horses can run 1000m - 1100m but just can’t run a strong 1200m, even if they appear to be finishing strongly over the 1000 or 1100. And many horses that run a strong 1600 just can’t perform at the same level over 2000. So, if you can confidently conclude that it was the distance that caused the failure, you can find good value next start if they switch back.
Nadia Horne: Track conditions?
Dean Evans: Many punters believe a wet track is a wet track and there’s not much difference, but there’s often a big difference between dead and slow, or slow and heavy, and even between a Heavy 8 and Heavy 10, so many would just mark that down as a Heavy track run. But you can often forgive the difference between a track condition even if it only seems slight.
Nadia Horne: Right a very good point there. What about course suitability? Some horses just put in peak performances at certain tracks, it’s the old horses for courses saying.
Dean Evans: Yes exactly, a good example is the Geelong Synthetic track, a real ‘horses for courses’ venue. A good recent example is The Secret who has only ever won on the Geelong Synthetic, in fact has won 4 from 4 on the Synthetic, but been unable to run a place at 4 other Australian starts on other courses, so in that example, whenever the horse runs at Geelong, it probably pays to ignore prior runs on other tracks and assess his Geelong performances only, but when not running at Geelong could pay to assess him on his non Geelong runs only.
Nadia Horne: What about track bias?
Dean Evans: This can be overplayed at times, but on other occasions it can help to find value. If you’re reviewing the tapes together with the sectional times and horses simply didn’t make up ground all day, be prepared to forgive certain horses if conditions didn’t suit, and same if on pace runners were disadvantaged. I gave an example in a previous interview of The DA who led and ran a great 6th on a day when leaders on the fence at Newcastle had no hope, then came out next start and led and won at Muswellbrook by 2.5 lengths at $9, so there’s plenty of opportunities in that space.
Nadia Horne: Yeah for sure, and also race pace is one great thing and even race shape?
Dean Evans: Yeah absolutely, what happens late in a race is often a direct result of what happened early, so you can be forgiving of horses that have to get out of their comfort zone early. Sometimes for example, a hot early pace can lead to a horse running tailed off and beaten a long way, but next time with a more reasonable tempo these horses can surprise the market, and lead all the way.
Nadia Horne: Let's also talk about conditions and things that do happen in the run. Sometimes horses are impeded by others, intimidated by them on the outside, they need room and they can just simply get into bumping duels.
Dean Evans: Yes absolutely. I think this is one the most underrated and misunderstood of them all. Nadia, you’ll remember the Ranvet at Rosehill in March when everyone thought it was a two horse race between Fiorente and Dundeel and they ended up having a bumping duel. Dundeel disappointed ran 3rd then came out and won the Queen Elizabeth, whilst Fiorente could only manage 7th and then bounced back to run 3rd in the BMW. If absolute superstar Group 1 winners can’t handle being bumped, then what about standard horses? I’m actually amazed in the aftermath of the flops of Almalad and Nostradamus that I haven’t heard a single person, the jockeys trainers, stewards, or the media mention the fact that those two horses got into a big bumping duel last week in the Run to the Rose. Nostradamus tried to keep Almalad posted 3 wide so Almalad at around the 900m mark gave him two or three big shoves and to my eye those bumps were the equal if not more severe than the ones copped by Dundeel and Fiorente, so I think Almalad and Nostradamus will both bounce back to be very nice horses, and although the heavy track will have been one contributing factor, I think the impact of bumping in races is underestimated and it could well be those horses could well have finished down the track on the dry anyway, because of the big bumps that they copped.
Nadia Horne: Yeah that’s a really good point that you bring up because I think a lot of people have just put them into the category of not handling the track.
Dean Evans: No, I think it could be more than that. If you have a look at the replay, they got in a real duel, and you know horses can get winded like we can. If you cop a big kick in the stomach when you’re having a run, you're not going to finish off either, and horses are the same. And they also just struggle mentally, they’re big animals, and it can knock the confidence out of them when they cop a bump, so I think it's a very underrated aspect of why a horse can fail.
Nadia Horne: You bring up a very good point Dean, thank you.
Dean Evans: No problem, thanks Nadia.
Nadia Horne: Maybe that’s something we need to look a little bit more into; when horses are getting into a bumping duel throughout races.

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