Do you build speed maps?

In this interview on RSN - Radio & Sport conducted by Nadia Horne, Dean Evans from Winning Edge Investments discusses the important elements to consider when building speed maps.

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Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial  Spy who’ll be talking today about some points in regards to speed maps and some of the things that we clearly should be looking for. Dean, good morning. This is a real point, isn’t it, to look at, because speed maps have become a massive part of people doing form and there are some real things that you have to look at and not just their position in running, there are various factors that you have to look at in compiling this.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, absolutely. Morning, Nadia. Yeah, race pace and where a horse’s general running position is has a huge influence on the result. It’s sort of estimated somewhere around 60% of all races are won by horses settling in the first four, but speed maps can be used to find false favourites, such as horses likely to be taken on in front, or forced to race wide, or getting back on 0:47 a race with slow tempo. So there are certainly enormous benefits from getting a map right.

Nadia Horne: Alright, well let’s talk about a few key points that you have to consider here when you do work out your speed maps. Now, let’s talk about recent positions in running and what we actually take out of this.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah. It’s probably the number one factor most people sort of use as the starting point. It’s where, when racing in the preferred distance range, you know, most horses sort of tend to fall in a general category of either a leader, a non-pacer, midfield or a back marker. And horses are pretty habitual, you know, if they led last time, then they generally try to lead again and the same tends to apply for other racing profiles. And there’s different factors that can affect this, but most horses tend to hold their standard of running position.

Nadia Horne: What about field size?

Dean the Trial Spy: It’s important to note that leading a 16 horse field is very different to leading a 5 horse one in terms of the likely tempo. And also when you’re sort of racing 8th in an 8 horse field, it can be very different to racing 8th in a capacity field, both in terms of pace but also the likelihood of getting out into clear running.

Nadia Horne: What about a barrier as well? This is an important one because it can change a map considerably.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, absolutely. A horse that went back, sometimes from a wide barrier, last start also, a horse might want to push and lead from a wide barrier to make sure they’re not caught wide. If the next start they’re drawn a kinder, inside barrier, they may well be able to settle in a more sort of prominent, handy position rather than being forced to go forward or back.

Nadia Horne: And their recent form?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, how well a horse has performed from its recent settling positions can determine how likely it is to repeat that. If a horse sort of sat midfield and finished over the top from last start, the jockey’s more likely to try that again, but sometimes, if a tactic hasn’t worked, then they might try to change that you can often see form firsts 2:50 particularly in horses who haven’t had too many starts when they finally find their correct running position.

Nadia Horne:  And what about a jockey, a jockey’s thoughts as well?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, it’s just important to note, I suppose, that jockeys have a natural preference sometimes in terms of how they like to ride. A rider like Unclear Willet 3:05 is well known to like to push forward and dictate, and others such as Nick Hall 3:10 like to get their horses to relax and settle underneath them. So, you want to consider both the jockey today, but also who rode the horse in recent runs, to determine whether that had an impact on where the horse has previously raced and where it’s likely to race going forward. And, probably also important to consider, apprentices and inexperienced jockeys who sometimes struggle on leaders where their judgement of pace has been off and was a strong unclear like a natural perfectly  3:34 in front and that can dictate the ability of the horse to perform on a certain day.

Nadia Horne: And what about track bias on the day?

Dean the Trial Spy: You know, sometimes a horse is just forced to race upside down. If there’s a strong perceived track bias. You know, if all the leaders are winning, a natural back marker might be pushed or hunted up to take a more prominent position if they’re in the market and vice versa. So, it’s important to note sometimes what track bias was on a certain day when assessing a speed map if that may have been a reason why a horse was ridden out of position.

Nadia Horne: And also some distance changes?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there can be a big difference between a horse going forward over a staying trip compared to if it races over a sprinting distance. It won’t be able to keep up and keep its normal prominent position. And also, just noting, you know a horse that may have settled say fifth over a mile, could well easily sit second of third over 2000m over a slower tip post 4:31. So, you need to take that into consideration when forming…4:35

Nadia Horne: Alright, and also, you’ve also got to look at stages of a horse’s preparation as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, a horses are often more likely to race in a prominent position early in their campaign rather than later with a sprinter. But, as we sort of discussed also, a stayer who might race handy, might often settle long. Unclear 4:54 way further back when they’re having their early stage preparation runs over 1200 or 1400.

Nadia Horne: Class?

Dean the Trial Spy: Well the ability to race on the pace at a lower class doesn’t necessarily mean they can transfer that going up in class.  If you lead a country maiden and win, it doesn’t mean you’ll be able to take them up and lead in a race at Flemington.

Nadia Horne: I understand that theory as well, just due to different sort of tempo of a race and also, distance to the first turn.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there’s a few tracks across Australia where there’s a very short run to the first turn, and that can sort of mean that the horses drawn wide, you know, either need to shoot across and try to cut the corner and use up a lot of petrol early, or it can result in that horse breaking wide. But in many circumstance on these tracks, it’s a benefit for leaders to be drawn wide. They can often dictate the tempo from that position and take their time in getting across.

Nadia Horne: And other things to look at, you know, meters per second?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, well that’s a data point that can be used if you’ve got access to that information. It can give you more insight than just simply using the positions in running because…

Nadia Horne: We can tell you how fast a horse travels. Simple.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, exactly. So, you know, it’s a big advantage telling you, you know, a horse that might have settled handy or midfielder even, in races with a lot of pace and high class, you know, might be able to actually settle right up on the speed when it drops in class or just in a different race. So, when you’ve got that meters per second data that can provide real clarity that simply using positions in running can’t tell you.

Nadia Horne: And some trainers have unclear 6:35 how they like their horses ridden as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Well, that’s right. There are some trainers that are pretty predictable. You’ve got Gai Waterhouse who wants all her horses up there to be lead or right up on the speed and someone like Bart Cummings teaches his horses to relax you know midfield or worse and they finish unclear 6:50. So just knowing who trained them is an important aspect.

Nadia Horne: And what about back markers?

Dean the Trial Spy: Um, you know, they can often be disadvantaged by slow pace and conversely, you know, the leaders can be undone by a hot tempo, but certainly with back markers you want to be, being careful with certain tracks you know, the likes of say Moonee Valley or a Canterbury, the tight track and particularly when the rail is out and on-pacers have a clear advantage.

Nadia Horne: And horses who are racing wide?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, look, horses racing sort of free wide with no cover 7:19 is particularly tough, you know, particularly when the tempo is solid and you’re up around the speed unclear 7:28 sometimes being free wide with cover. It isn’t necessarily terrible if you’re on a big track and the tempo’s only moderate.

Nadia Horne: Another thing to take into consideration are leaders going slowly as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, there’s sort of been a belief that jockeying a leader to try and stack them up and slow sort of the race down, but it’s been shown quite conclusively that, you know, that can allow other jockeys to come up and put more pressure on, but it can also detract from a lot of horses’ strengths, particularly leaders which like to go along at a high cruising speed and get the horses off the bit. So, sometimes the leaders going too slowly can actually set the race up for horses with a bigger final kick to come home over the top and may not have actually benefitted unclear 8:10.

Nadia Horne: You know, because they get closer to the leader without using too much petrol. In fact, it’s logical sense.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, that’s exactly it and not put under any pressure.

Nadia Horne: Exactly. Dean, wonderful. Appreciate your insight as always.

Dean the Trial Spy: Alright. Thanks very much, Nadia.

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial  Spy who’ll be talking today about some points in regards to speed maps and some of the things that we clearly should be looking for. Dean, good morning. This is a real point, isn’t it, to look at, because speed maps have become a massive part of people doing form and there are some real things that you have to look at and not just their position in running, there are various factors that you have to look at in compiling this.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, absolutely. Morning, Nadia. Yeah, race pace and where a horse’s general running position is has a huge influence on the result. It’s sort of estimated somewhere around 60% of all races are won by horses settling in the first four, but speed maps can be used to find false favourites, such as horses likely to be taken on in front, or forced to race wide, or getting back on 0:47 a race with slow tempo. So there are certainly enormous benefits from getting a map right.

Nadia Horne: Alright, well let’s talk about a few key points that you have to consider here when you do work out your speed maps. Now, let’s talk about recent positions in running and what we actually take out of this.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah. It’s probably the number one factor most people sort of use as the starting point. It’s where, when racing in the preferred distance range, you know, most horses sort of tend to fall in a general category of either a leader, a non-pacer, midfield or a back marker. And horses are pretty habitual, you know, if they led last time, then they generally try to lead again and the same tends to apply for other racing profiles. And there’s different factors that can affect this, but most horses tend to hold their standard of running position.

Nadia Horne: What about field size?

Dean the Trial Spy: It’s important to note that leading a 16 horse field is very different to leading a 5 horse one in terms of the likely tempo. And also when you’re sort of racing 8th in an 8 horse field, it can be very different to racing 8th in a capacity field, both in terms of pace but also the likelihood of getting out into clear running.

Nadia Horne: What about a barrier as well? This is an important one because it can change a map considerably.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, absolutely. A horse that went back, sometimes from a wide barrier, last start also, a horse might want to push and lead from a wide barrier to make sure they’re not caught wide. If the next start they’re drawn a kinder, inside barrier, they may well be able to settle in a more sort of prominent, handy position rather than being forced to go forward or back.

Nadia Horne: And their recent form?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, how well a horse has performed from its recent settling positions can determine how likely it is to repeat that. If a horse sort of sat midfield and finished over the top from last start, the jockey’s more likely to try that again, but sometimes, if a tactic hasn’t worked, then they might try to change that you can often see form firsts 2:50 particularly in horses who haven’t had too many starts when they finally find their correct running position.

Nadia Horne:  And what about a jockey, a jockey’s thoughts as well?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, it’s just important to note, I suppose, that jockeys have a natural preference sometimes in terms of how they like to ride. A rider like Unclear Willet 3:05 is well known to like to push forward and dictate, and others such as Nick Hall 3:10 like to get their horses to relax and settle underneath them. So, you want to consider both the jockey today, but also who rode the horse in recent runs, to determine whether that had an impact on where the horse has previously raced and where it’s likely to race going forward. And, probably also important to consider, apprentices and inexperienced jockeys who sometimes struggle on leaders where their judgement of pace has been off and was a strong unclear like a natural perfectly  3:34 in front and that can dictate the ability of the horse to perform on a certain day.

Nadia Horne: And what about track bias on the day?

Dean the Trial Spy: You know, sometimes a horse is just forced to race upside down. If there’s a strong perceived track bias. You know, if all the leaders are winning, a natural back marker might be pushed or hunted up to take a more prominent position if they’re in the market and vice versa. So, it’s important to note sometimes what track bias was on a certain day when assessing a speed map if that may have been a reason why a horse was ridden out of position.

Nadia Horne: And also some distance changes?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there can be a big difference between a horse going forward over a staying trip compared to if it races over a sprinting distance. It won’t be able to keep up and keep its normal prominent position. And also, just noting, you know a horse that may have settled say fifth over a mile, could well easily sit second of third over 2000m over a slower tip post 4:31. So, you need to take that into consideration when forming…4:35

Nadia Horne: Alright, and also, you’ve also got to look at stages of a horse’s preparation as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, a horses are often more likely to race in a prominent position early in their campaign rather than later with a sprinter. But, as we sort of discussed also, a stayer who might race handy, might often settle long. Unclear 4:54 way further back when they’re having their early stage preparation runs over 1200 or 1400.

Nadia Horne: Class?

Dean the Trial Spy: Well the ability to race on the pace at a lower class doesn’t necessarily mean they can transfer that going up in class.  If you lead a country maiden and win, it doesn’t mean you’ll be able to take them up and lead in a race at Flemington.

Nadia Horne: I understand that theory as well, just due to different sort of tempo of a race and also, distance to the first turn.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there’s a few tracks across Australia where there’s a very short run to the first turn, and that can sort of mean that the horses drawn wide, you know, either need to shoot across and try to cut the corner and use up a lot of petrol early, or it can result in that horse breaking wide. But in many circumstance on these tracks, it’s a benefit for leaders to be drawn wide. They can often dictate the tempo from that position and take their time in getting across.

Nadia Horne: And other things to look at, you know, meters per second?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, well that’s a data point that can be used if you’ve got access to that information. It can give you more insight than just simply using the positions in running because…

Nadia Horne: We can tell you how fast a horse travels. Simple.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, exactly. So, you know, it’s a big advantage telling you, you know, a horse that might have settled handy or midfielder even, in races with a lot of pace and high class, you know, might be able to actually settle right up on the speed when it drops in class or just in a different race. So, when you’ve got that meters per second data that can provide real clarity that simply using positions in running can’t tell you.

Nadia Horne: And some trainers have unclear 6:35 how they like their horses ridden as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Well, that’s right. There are some trainers that are pretty predictable. You’ve got Gai Waterhouse who wants all her horses up there to be lead or right up on the speed and someone like Bart Cummings teaches his horses to relax you know midfield or worse and they finish unclear 6:50. So just knowing who trained them is an important aspect.

Nadia Horne: And what about back markers?

Dean the Trial Spy: Um, you know, they can often be disadvantaged by slow pace and conversely, you know, the leaders can be undone by a hot tempo, but certainly with back markers you want to be, being careful with certain tracks you know, the likes of say Moonee Valley or a Canterbury, the tight track and particularly when the rail is out and on-pacers have a clear advantage.

Nadia Horne: And horses who are racing wide?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, look, horses racing sort of free wide with no cover 7:19 is particularly tough, you know, particularly when the tempo is solid and you’re up around the speed unclear 7:28 sometimes being free wide with cover. It isn’t necessarily terrible if you’re on a big track and the tempo’s only moderate.

Nadia Horne: Another thing to take into consideration are leaders going slowly as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, you know, there’s sort of been a belief that jockeying a leader to try and stack them up and slow sort of the race down, but it’s been shown quite conclusively that, you know, that can allow other jockeys to come up and put more pressure on, but it can also detract from a lot of horses’ strengths, particularly leaders which like to go along at a high cruising speed and get the horses off the bit. So, sometimes the leaders going too slowly can actually set the race up for horses with a bigger final kick to come home over the top and may not have actually benefitted unclear 8:10.

Nadia Horne: You know, because they get closer to the leader without using too much petrol. In fact, it’s logical sense.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, that’s exactly it and not put under any pressure.

Nadia Horne: Exactly. Dean, wonderful. Appreciate your insight as always.

Dean the Trial Spy: Alright. Thanks very much, Nadia.

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