Should average prizemoney per start be considered in form as a factor?

In this interview conducted by Nadia Horne on RSN - Racing & Sports, Dean The Trial Spy explains whether to consider average prizemoney per start as a form factor.

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Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy is with us today. We are going to talk about prizemoney per start and whether it is something we should be looking at or taking any notice of when we are working out our form. Dean it’s often something we do see in form guides.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah that’s right it’s a common thing that’s included and it’s there to tell you how the horses have performed in the past and somewhat give a guide as to the class of the horse. Obviously if it’s got a high prizemoney per start index then that would suggest they have won a decent race in the past, compared to the rest of the field.

Nadia Horne: Exactly it’s probably one thing that people tend to use when they are assessing different form lines and it is extremely difficult to try and line a lot of horses up together. But, there are some ratings methods which do like to put and average per start for each horse along side them and probably since all these computerised ratings programs have come into play that prizemoney has become quite an important yard stick. Does this mean it is another form factor that is over exposed and overbet do you think now Dean?

Dean the Trial Spy: The theory is that the higher the average amount earned per start, the better quality the horse. So the Average prizemoney Index (API) can be used as a runner-by-runner ranking measure and some could also use post-race as a different assessment of the overall class of the field compared to the official handicap rating. But we did some analysis based on some stats from 2010-2014 at best tote and had a look at few different areas to analyse whether the API is something that is over-bet or under-bet.

Nadia Horne: How is the API used in some ratings systems?

Dean the Trial Spy: Well essentially like I said it’s sort of either before the race you’ve got that runner-by-runner ranking so they rank them from top to bottom by API and apply a weighting I guess to that horse either by the ranking or by the raw number as a class figure. Or they use it post race to compare it rather than just using the official handicap rating, they actually use it as a different assessment of the class of the runners in that field and the overall field class.

Nadia Horne: A record of the SP favourite by API rank?

Dean the Trial Spy: We looked at the first 3 highest ranked API horses were actually unprofitable and they were worse than the benchmark. The top 3 were losing 2.4% more than benchmark, whereas the remainder (average prizemoney rank of 4 or more) actually broke even against the benchmark, those with an API rank of 9 or worse were actually 6.6% better than benchmark so the API so there’s no real true edge there with the favourite.

Nadia Horne: What about a record of say the first 4 horses in the betting market by the API rank?

Dean the Trial Spy: Again it’s a similar story, 1.3% were worse than the benchmark with the first 3 highest ranked API horses, so again they look like they’ve been over-bet. Whereas the remainder were slightly better than the benchmark, so if anything the lower the API rank the slightly better it was. 

Nadia Horne: Are there any situations where say a number one API rank performs well?

Dean the Trial Spy: It does tend to be a better guide once the horses mature. Our analysis shows that horses aged 5 years and older they only lost around 2% on turnover, whereas the combined group of 2yo/3yo/4yo lost around 10%, so for older horses it can be of some assistance, but for most races it simply isn’t.

Nadia Horne: Why do you think that the API index doesn’t appear to provide any real solid edge?

Dean the Trial Spy: I guess firstly, focusing on API means when you’ve got horses that are improving ???? they are hard to identify using any type of API ranking. Then you’ve got weight, distance and track conditions and many other form factors are ignored. Another problem is that old form from many years ago is considered when just using a simple ranking system is considered just as relevant as recent form. But I think overall it just seems like the computerised ratings systems that are including the API are over-rating its relative importance which means that horses with a high API are over-bet.

Once again we have found that the form factor of API rank is another obvious, widely known stat that is well and truly factored into the market. The reality is you need to go a wider or even outside the box to find a winning edge.

Nadia Horne: It’s probably become quite an out-dated method as well just due to the way that racing has changed to, the fact that we race 7 days a week and you do see a lot of horse that come through the provincials go on and perform well in town in particular the way that in Victoria how strong our maidens are.

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, that’s exactly right that’s a great point. The way that a lot of the trainers operate the top trainers are able to take those younger types and give them a run in weaker company and then they can step up into Metropolitan grade and they were well and truly up to it even though they are racing horses who are proven and have won a lot more prizemoney in the past. That’s a big key it just doesn’t take into account the improving horses, so putting to much weighting on an API you’re simply not taking the true ability of the horse into account.

Nadia Horne: And I suppose its value can differ a lot when you’re dealing with smaller and larger sample sizes as well.

Dean the Trial Spy: Well exactly and that’s what the stats showed, that with the older horses it can be of some use because there’s a lot more form to go by with the older horses and any unclear 6:30

When they’re a younger 2 and 3 year old a lot of them simply aren’t proven and you’ve go to identify other things such as trial form and class and probably speed ratings to really identify the true ability of the horse. Rather than simply going by prizemoney which as we are showing here is completely over-bet.

Nadia Horne: Dean, it’s a changing landscape all the time and to gain that edge you’ve just got to keep on top of innovation and change constantly.

Dean the Trial Spy: That’s the key, you’ve got to be one step ahead of the game at all times and when you are compiling ratings and that sort of thing unclear 7:06 or that are unique or that’ve got a true edge. Because basic form factors these days are certainly not going to give you an edge and if anything might actually as we’ve shown here give you a negative edge and have you performing even worse than the benchmark.

Nadia Horne: Well they probably are going to give you a negative edge because more people have access to them.

Dean the Trial Spy: That’s right, that’s exactly it. So they become over-bet so you end up taking unders even though you believe that you’re incorporating something that has some sort of edge to it.

Nadia Horne: Wonderful thanks Dean, we’ll talk again on Friday.

Dean the Trial Spy: Great, thanks very much Nadia.