Below is a bit of a read, so digest properly when you have 5 minutes to yourself.

Based on my own observations (and the odd bit of feedback) during 2016 I've decided to record all bets going forward using the 'Monitor' method (3rd best fixed or mid tote), continuing to exclude weak bookies such as Bet365, the Ladbrokes group and many others listed previously.

This means there will be no bets recorded using the 'Take Best Fixed' methodology of top price excluding weak bookies. I recognised some bookies were moving those prices too quickly, as the parasites continue to weaken. However I will continue to advise you of expected market movements (with even more guidance, details below), which will give you the opportunity to now take much better prices than official on all horses including those marked as expected firmers.

I will also be removing the bookie quoted in the SMS/e-mail. I've come to the realisation that quoting the name of the 3rd best bookie is really of no benefit or useful consequence, and might have confused new members who thought it is the best available price, when it was only ever the 3rd best price.

The new guidance with each bet will be as follows:

F - Expected/Likely Firmer in betting
f - Possible firmer in betting
- Unsure, could move either way
d - Possible drifter in betting
D - Expected/Likely Drifter in betting

F - Take best fixed price available, is big current value
f - Take most fixed, but maybe monitor a portion late
- Take half fixed, half monitor
d - Take a portion early, but more later
D - Is slight unders at present and is expected to get out in betting

Example guidance (Fixed to Late split)

F - 100/0
f - 75/25
- 50/50
d - 25/75
D - 0/100

Please note where you see a blank space, for the 50/50 bets, it is exactly that, there will be no F, f, d or D, just a blank space with no advice for the 50/50 ones.

I will still advise BTSP, BFSP or BOB as appropriate.

A few points to note:

My guidance will be based on assessing the 3rd best fixed price quoted. So if you get a significantly higher price through a weak non included bookie or firmer, you might have a higher portion on fixed.

Use your brain. Say you are in a meeting or a function and miss an early SMS and see it 2 hours later. And we have had a big go at something at $31 as an F and it's now $10. Don't just take $10 fixed because it's an F. You've missed it. Take it Betfair SP or BTSP and hope it drifts a bit back out. They usually will, often on Betfair, as people trade and other horses become value and hence are backed by others.

The below blog article is still great advice on assessing whether something is likely to firm or drift, and whether to lock in a fixed price or not. Class of meeting (Metro/Provincial/Country), Advised Unit Stake and number of horses backed in a race are 3 key variables explained to help your decision.
http://www.horseracingprofessionals.com.au/blog/getting-the-best-possible-odds-update/

I will be updating the Member's Information Pack in the coming days, separating advice for races when you can actually monitor prices, and races when you cannot. I know most members work full time and cannot monitor prices all day, however everybody can do it sometimes (weekends, holidays, days off, night meetings etc). Hence advice for both scenarios will be clear.

One option I believe needs to be trialled by all is using Betfair SP (with a minimum price) on the non-fixed portions of your bets. When you do that, it gives you the option to set a minimum price.

What minimum price should you choose? Well start with the advised price, then use a combination of the unit stakes advised, and the guidance on whether the horse is expect to firm or drift from the price.

You should also use the "Will I be annoyed test?" to determine the minimum price. As an example, if something is a 0.1 unit bet at $10, and it wins, will you be annoyed? If not, increase the min price. If it is a 1 unit bet at $10 and wins, will you be annoyed? Probably, so maybe reduce the min price.

However don't reduce the min price so low that you're always taking big unders. Otherwise you'll be annoyed you're not matching results. So that's the counterbalance. The point of doing it is to avoid taking big unders if a horse remains overbet. Occasions where the potential collect is still high anyway (as the edge was so big) are the only times that is acceptable. For example, if I say bet 1u at $41 on a horse, that is huge value. If it goes into $15, it's still a bet because it's a 15u collect which is still big. If it's only a 0.1u bet, different story.

Note only use the Betfair SP or BTSP/BOB for that matter) if you don't have time to monitor that race. Otherwise don't be lazy. Laziness is not rewarded in most aspects of life, and certainly not in betting. Want better results? Put in the effort when you have the opportunity to monitor Betfair and Corporate bookie prices.

All feedback welcome as usual. There will be questions in the upcoming Member Survey about these changes etc. But I trust all will find them positive considering there is more clear advice on likely market movements which will increase member profits, combined with even more conservative odds recording that will bring down official results further.

All the best.

Dean