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INTERVIEW: GET THE LOWDOWN ON AFL TIPS
Want to learn more about our AFL Tips service? Read the full interview below about the dynamic duo who had an incredible 2020 AFL betting season.
What is your background?
We are a team of two. Both of us grew up in Melbourne and have followed the AFL closely all of our lives. We combine for over 20 years of experience betting on AFL football, as well as invaluable experience on the other side of the fence working for a leading corporate bookmaker.
Last year starting from Round 6 we provided our selections on a free tips website that receives over 40,000 page views a month and they sent the tips to a newsletter database with thousands of subscribers. These tips delivered a 26.3u PROFIT, achieving a 41% POT with 24 winners from 43 bets (56% strike rate).
What methodologies do you use to produce your selections? What factors do you take into account? Where do you find the biggest edges?
The work we do is a combination of data driven and subjective analysis approaches, which come from years of experience successfully betting on AFL football.
Will there be a set release time/date for AFL tips each week, or tips sent when the opportunities present themselves?
No set times. Head to head and line markets typically go up on a Monday so if there are opportunities we identify at that time we will advise these to members. Otherwise we wait for teams to be released on a Thursday night. All of the weekend's bets will be sent out prior to Friday 5pm.
What will be the main bet types? Where do you find your biggest edges.
Typically we will focus in on head to head and line markets. Multis will also be a regular feature in our staking plan. These were used to great effect last year.
Will you send Futures bets?
Futures bets will certainly be considered and last year we did have some success with these. Last season we advised Richmond to win the Premiership a number of weeks out, & Brisbane to finish in the top 4.
How many bets per week? How many units do you expect to turnover each week?
There are 9 games of footy each week, so from our perspective it’s all about picking the eyes out of the markets and identifying where the value lies. Some weeks there might be only 1 or 2 bets, others there might be 5 or 6. But we will only advise bets when we identify a clear edge on the market.
Should I bet straight away when bets are released, or wait until close to game start?
We advise taking the price when the selections are sent. Our aim is to identify value in the current markets, and hence with a +EV we expect to beat the closing line to achieve this.
What information do you provide with each bet?
The selection, the advised stake in units, the available odds, and an explanation of why we believe it is a great bet.
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