Major Race Previews

Today we have some detailed previews of the $5m G1 Caulfield Cup run over 2400m and The$14m Everest at Randwick over 1200m.

Caulfield Cup Preview by Cameron O'Brien

Cameron O'Brien is the Pro Punter heading our WA Tips & Ratings service. Having found the winner of the last two editions of the Caulfield Cup his thoughts are well worth looking at.

One of the biggest races on the calendar for the Spring carnival, or in fact for the year, is the G1 2400m Caulfield Cup, and it is usually a very hard race to pick! I have found the winner of the last two Caulfield Cup’s in my preview of the race – BEST SOLUTION and BOOM TIME – and both at nice prices. Hopefully the same again here!

The last few winners have been –

The speed map is very important, however it is a tough race to map with so many internationals. I think many runners will back, it might get a bit crowded back there. I have mapped FINCHE wide but to be honest I am pretty sure they’ll end up outside the lead on him –

Here’s my market on the race –

*** Note I have left the emergencies out, they’re unlikely to get a start. I don’t give SOUND, NEUFBOSC or TRUE SELF much chance anyway, however if PRINCE OF ARRAN did get a start I would have him single figure odds and would be backing him. I doubt he will though.

So, assuming the EM’s are out, I have CONSTANTINOPLE as a clear bet. I also have a few roughies who I think can win and are well over my odds, in THE CHOSEN ONE, GOLD MOUNT and BRIMHAM ROCKS. At this stage I will be looking to back all four but my biggest bet on CONSTANTINOPLE.

Here’s a write up of what I think are the key chances:

CONSTANTINOPLE is a progressive European 4yo now with Hayes, and apparently working really strongly. He rated 116 off a 114 the start before and that makes him a solid chance here. He has a few quirks and they have put a lot of gear changes on him but he's an undoubted talent and he maps well. Top rater for mine.

THE CHOSEN ONE won well here last Saturday rating 115 and I have no reason to think he can't hold - except he has drawn off the track. He'll need luck on the map but on the strength of his strong 115 with just 52 kgs here he is a live chance if he gets it.

FINCHE is a very genuine galloper working up towards his top, he was strong on the line at Flemington going 113 and will be further improved, he has a top of 116 and is right in it here.

GOLD MOUNT is first up off 98 days, he is a 7yo now but is in form, went well going 116 at York two back over 2600m, he should map quite well here too.

BRIMHAM ROCKS may go around silly odds, he won strongly here over 2000m two starts back going 114 before he had no luck at Randwick, and I think he's better the Melbourne way anyway. He has drawn wide and may have to go right back, will need luck but with only 52 kgs can win.

MR QUICKIE is third up into the face and as a 4yo I don't think we've seen his top yet. He was very good first up closing it out strongly going 113, bit of a flat one 2nd up but can bounce back.

MER DE GLACE is the Japanese runner who has won his last 5, and is a 115 horse. He copped a weight penalty going from 53 initially to 55.5 recently, that's a bit of a downer but he's a solid Group performed horse with a top rider on. Drawn wide is a concern.

Good luck in the big race

Cameron O’Brien

The Everest Preview by Mark Rhoden

Mark Rhoden is the Pro Punter heading our NSW Tips & Ratings service.

Here is his preview of The Everest.

If Nature Strip really lets fly the field will break up more than this, but otherwise some of the jockeys mapped in the three wide line here will have some work to do.

1 SANTA ANA LANE – Outstanding sprinter who will be primed to peak here. His best figures are the best of any horse in the race. The inside draw isn’t ideal on paper but a solid Westerly wind may assist those drawn near the rail.

2 PIERATA – Top class sprinter but although he’s capable on dry his very best is on soft ground. Similar to Santa Ana Lane the inside draw doesn’t look great but the wind conditions may counteract that.

3 REDZEL – He might be past his very best now but he did trial very well since his last start. I won’t be on him but certainly wouldn’t shock to see him win this for the third year running.

4 NATURE STRIP – $26 is over the odds on his best figures but he has to be a huge risk at 1200m against this class of horse, although the wind on the day may be a plus for him.

5 TREKKING – Honest sprinter who will get back in the field and is likely to fall short in this class.

6 CLASSIQUE LEGEND – Unsuited last start and the fast pace will be in his favour. If he can get some cover he can finish off well and he looks over the odds.

7 TEN SOVEREIGNS – Drawn badly but has one of the best jockeys in the world in the saddle. It’s impossible to know how he’s going but his July Cup performance would win this – if you’re betting in the race it’s hard to let him go round at better than 20/1

8 ALIZEE – Has trialled well since last start and the tempo will suit. Against that, she’d either need a new peak performance - or plenty of others to fail - to win here.

9 SUNLIGHT – Her best form is down the Flemington straight and she’s probably short of the mark in this grade.

10 IN HER TIME – Has an outstanding first-up record and drawn to get her chance. Would need her absolute best to win here but she’s over the odds.

11 ARCADIA QUEEN – Impressive winner at her first NSW start. She had all the favours that day and while she has a chance I think she’s under the odds.

12 YES YES YES – The blinkers go on and a fast run 1200m will suit. I think he’s around his right price but can certainly win without surprising.

OVERVIEW

A great race with a stack of chances. Santa Ana Lane is top pick, and if the wind produces yet another “up the inside” pattern at Randwick his inside draw may be a help rather than a hindrance. I think there are a few value runners in the race worth saving on – Classique Legend, Ten Sovereigns and In Her Time are all attractive odds in my opinion. There are plenty of others you can make a case for, and it should be a great betting race – and a fantastic contest.