Series Preview by Dave Trotter

Below are some of my thoughts on the third test between Australia and South Africa. I have based my thoughts around the fact that the pitch will aid the bowling side.


The Past

Before we look ahead we must look back to the last Day Night Test match at Adelaide oval. Low scores, regular wickets and no side requiring the second new ball means it was definitely a different test match than we are used to seeing in Adelaide.

With seamers seeming (pun intended) to dominate the wickets with a 29-7 advantage we can assume that the players struggled to play the moving pink ball. When you look at the FOW’s throughout the match it seems that wickets fell regularly with only one collapse of note. (3-94 (Latham, 31.5 ov), 4-98 (Taylor, 32.6 ov), 5-98 (McCullum, 33.3 ov)) We have to be mindful to not take too much from this test match as this is the only sample we have to work from. The pitch prepared for this match has 2mm less grass on it than last year.

It has been said that the pitch being prepared will closely resemble the domestic fixture earlier this year between SA and VIC. In this game VIC won the toss and batted putting on 325 & 5/306 (Including a Handscomb hundred) with SA getting 224 & 189. What is interesting in this game is that the breakdown of wickets looks slightly different to that of the D/N test match in that pace bowling got 23 wickets and spinners got 10 including a Ahmed 5/24 in the last innings.


Application

The question remains, how can we take this information and use it to trade effectively in the game?

Based on the above information it looks like we can fade the spinners in play (especially in the first innings) meaning to back the batting side when a spinner is operating and then get on the bowling contingent when they are bowling with the pink ball and moving it around.

In last year’s test match we had just over 250 overs before the match was over, with fine weather expected we can expect around 400 overs which is much more than what I would expect is required (Draw opened at $5 and is now out to $6.60). This year’s touring side looks a lot more threatening than NZ with the ball and Australia looks weaker with the bat which I expect will cancel out the fact this year’s pitch has less grass on it.

When Australia goes into bat I will likely be against them with the new ball darting around. Vernon and Abbott will likely be the best bowlers suited to conditions with a new ball and could cause chaos early like they did in Hobart. Once the ball seems to stop swinging and seaming I will look to trade out for the innings. Normally I would suggest backing the batting side in this situation but with Australia’s batting being so weak and full of new faces I am happy to pass.

The strategy will be much the same when South Africa bat as Mitch Starc and company will likely cause some early damage, once the ball seems to have quietened down I’m happy to back South Africa to bat themselves into a good position.


My book on Betfair as it stands pre game is the following:

Australia +0
South Africa +0.8
Draw -2

This book shows that I am highly against the draw.


In Play Trading Notes:

- It is unlikely I will have any green position on the draw in a twilight session of this match as this is where I expect the majority of wickets to fall outside of the new ball. If we get the chance to see a new ball against the Australian batting line-up at night I will look to lay Australia quite hard as I think we could see some carnage.

- Australia’s middle order is its weakness, If smith and Warner go early backing run line unders for the team could be a profitable strategy as I think both Warner and Smith will make a big % of Australia’s runs.


Player comments:

Smith- Showed an incredible amount of fight in Hobart and led from the front with the bat. I really liked his mental fortitude to survive the South African attack. He won’t score at his usual rate but he should look to carry his bat meaning betting on the next man out market could prove some value as Smith looked to be the only Aussie to show fight in the second test + Aussie middle order riddled with inexperience.

Betting Advice- Look to bet on the next man out to NOT be Steve Smith when he is at the crease unless his partner is David Warner, Steve Smith batted with 13 partners across his 2 innings in Hobart.

Nic Maddinson- With a first class average in the high 30’s I don’t hold high hopes for him. I think he could really struggle against the higher quality bowling.

Betting Advice- Look to back run line unders if the ball is moving or its night time, I would like to get a run line of mid 20’s live

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