Series Preview by Dave TrotterThis summer we are treated to what I am hoping will be a very entertaining and profitable Test series between Australia and South Africa. It seems like decades ago that we had two sides play each other in which the home conditions wouldn’t feel alien to the touring side. This means that we don’t have to manipulate the historical player data much to be able to get an idea of the expected impact each player will have on the game.
The area I really want to focus on this series is the pace attacks, the reason for that is runs are never hard to come by in Australia when you have a competent batting line up which both sides possess and Spin bowling at these venues shouldn’t be a major factor.
If we look at the basic KPI of what a bowler averages in Wickets per match we see that South Africa are in a different class to Australia, when we take into account how hard it is to win a test match without the ability to take 20 wickets this is a concerning factor for the Australians.
AUS WPM SA WPMSTARC 4.1 STEYN 5
HAZELWOOD 3.9 PHILANDER 3.8
SIDDLE 3.4 RABADA 3.6
M MARSH 1.5 MORKLE 3.4
Total 12.9 Total 15.8 Without looking into the data and applying sound theory we can see South Africa should have the edge on taking wickets. However there are a few things we need to consider before we are willing to invest into any markets.
- Philander needs assistance when bowling and with the Flat wicket that is currently being prepared he will likely not get enough to hold the same WPM.
- Rabada is a young quick bowler that will only improve and should get the best out of the highway that is expected to be produced. I would expect his WPM to be closer to 4, I think he could make a name for himself in this series but I try not to get too carried away with young talents like him.
- Starc is a major unknown as he has admitted himself that his is underdone this match meaning he may bowl less than expected driving down his WPM.
- Siddle has shown signs of him returning to what he used to be and should bowl a nagging line and length extracting whatever he can from a flat pitch. Expect him to be bowling plenty of overs increases his WPM.
With these factors and others taken into account I have the adjusted WPM rating as per below.
AUS WPM SA WPMSTARC 4.0 STEYN 5.0
HAZELWOOD 3.7 PHILANDER 3.2
SIDDLE 4.4 RABADA 4.0
M MARSH 1.5 MORKLE 3.4
Total 13.6 Total 15.6 As you can see the adjustment brings the attacks closer together as you would expect with Australia being the home side but rarely do I have the adjusted rating higher for the touring side let alone by 2 points.
Based off of the data shown above you could do worse than to back Dale Steyn Top Team Bowler around the $3.50 mark at Sportsbet for the first Test Match as well as South Africa to win. Subscribers will receive a full set of player ratings for the Australian players with some solid investment opportunities before the 1st test.
Please note that I am not that interested in betting into Series markets that could be affected if Starc goes down during the series which is likely in my opinion, this will have a major bearing on the series if this happens.
Dave's Cricket Tips have performed very strongly leading into the big Summer of Cricket in Australia.
Period Cumulative P&L POT% ROI% Profit ($100) per unitAugust 23.2 36.1% 23.2% $2,318
September 6.2 7.8% 6.2% $620
October 13.4 18.8% 13.4% $1,341
That's $4,279 profit last quarter from just a $700 investment. Click below to join now.
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