In last year’s big bash there was a feast of promotions that you could take advantage of, these included but were not limited to the following.

- Money back if your team scores 160+ but loses
- Money back as Bonus Bets if your team scores 160+ and loses
- Money back as Bonus Bets if your Top Team Runscorer bet scores 30+ but loses.
- Click to call promo: Place a pre match bet on selected games and get equal stake free swing in play.

In this article we will focus on the top two promotions and how to abuse these offers by the corporates to make some low risk profit.

The past:

Out of a total 35 BBL matches last year teams scored 160+ and lost a total 14 times which equates to 40%. Sides failed to defend the score of 160+ 9 times and sides failed to chase big totals but still engaged the promotion money back 5 times.


For all calculations below we are assuming a conservative strike rate of 20% (7 out of 35) for sides batting first and 11% (4 out of 35) for sides chasing that engaged this promotion.

Using last year’s data we can start to formulate a “system” of betting these promotions to maximise our profit throughout the big bash.

For the below example we are assuming across all bookmakers 2 are offering Money back and 1 offer Money back as bonus bets. (All Max $50)

Due to the majority of games that engaged this promo being the side batting first that is where we will start. Over 25% of games played in last year’s BBL the team batting first scored 160+ and went on to lose, we will work off of our conservative strike rate of 20% however.


Team A wins toss and chooses to bat first, bets are as below.

Side             Stake             Odds             Return             Promo
Team A        $50.00           $1.75             $87.50             Cash Back
Team A        $50.00           $1.73             $86.50             Cash Back
Team A        $50.00           $1.70             $85.00             Bonus Back
Team B        $120.47         $2.15             $259.00           Hedge Bet

Team A scores 160+ and loses we win $88.53 and $50 in bonus bets
Any other Result we lose $11.47.

If we then choose to turn the bonus bet into real money using Match betting (Can get 65 cents to the dollar easily) we would then stand to make $121 if Team A scores 160+ and loses.

If we look at it from a different point of view we can get odds of $10+ on the side batting first to score 160+ and lose. Based on last year’s results it’s rated as a $5 chance (20%) for anyone who follows a ratings service getting $10+ on an event that is rated half that is extraordinary value.

With a conservative expected strike rate of 20% we can expect this event to happen 7 times throughout the tournament yielding us in excess to $500 profit ((7*121)=847-((35-7)*-11.47))=321).

Another way we can look at approaching this is if we use both the money back specials on the team batting first and then the Bonus back special on the chasing team. If we used this “system” our expected rate of return would look like this.


Team A wins the toss and decides to bat first bets are below.

Side             Stake             Odds             Return             Promo
Team A        $50.00           $1.75             $87.50             Cash Back
Team A        $50.00           $1.73             $86.50             Cash Back
Team B        $50.00           $2.10             $105.00           Bonus Back
Team B        $32.09           $2.15             $69.00             Hedge

If Team A scores 160+ and lose we win $91.91


If Team B scores 160+ and lose we lose $8.09 but receive a $50 Bonus bet


Any other result we lose $8.09


In last year’s tournament this would have hit in total 14 times out of 35 however using our conservative strike rates listed above the breakdown comes out like this.



7 times Team A engages the promo offer netting us a total $637 return


4 times Team B Engages the promo offer netting us a total loss of $32.36 but gaining us $200 in bonus bets that can then be converted into $130 Cash.


In the remaining 24 matches no promo is engaged so we lose $194.16


Total expected profit for this strategy is $540~ ($637-32.36+130-194.16)


Looking at both these strategies in the long term it seems that they will yield a similar profit figure based on past performance so it’s up to personal preference.


If you’re interested in this year’s Big Bash League Dave has decided to offer a 2 months for the price of 1 special for one week only. This will get you all his Big Bash bets pre game/futures (some of which have already been sent) as well as advice on playing promos and any trading advice.


SIMPLY CLICK HERE and enter the promo code BBL for this offer.