This series has been turned on its head with the announcement of AB not playing, this is unfortunate news for subscribers having bet into the South Africans to dominate the series earlier in the month. It’s only unfortunate however because we could have secured better odds.
With AB out South Africa’s middle order looks suspect but due to Australia’s bowling attack being very weak, the thin middle order of South Africa won’t be put under as much pressure as normal.
When we compare the bulk of the bowling attacks we start to see the worrying signs for Australia.

Player        Economy           Runs Per Innings        Strike Rate        Wickets Per Innings        Overs Per Innings

M Marsh         5.39                   43.12                          35.6                          1.35                                  8
J Hastings        4.68                   46.8                          35.6                           1.69                                  10
S Boland              6                   60                            50.36                           1.19                                  10
A Zampa         4.84                   48.4                          27.2                           2.21                                  10
Aus Total          ---                   198.32                          ---                             6.43                                   ---

W Parnell        5.58                 44.64                          32.1                           1.50                                  8
K Rabada         4.8                     48                           26.8                             2.24                                  10
D Steyn          4.86                   48.6                            32                            1.88                                  10
I Tahir             4.64                   46.4                          29.8                           2.01                                  10
SA Total         ---                   187.64                            ---                             7.62                                  ---


Looking at the totals these bowling attacks are very different, with South Africa holding the edge on Runs per Innings and wickets per innings from there 4 main bowlers this shows that South Africa clearly hold the edge in the bowling department.


Trends to look for this series:

South Africa openers to dominate
          o With a combined Average of over 94 these two openers should dominate for South Africa this series in all of but not limited to, Run Lines, Over first wicket lines, High First 15 overs and to top score for the game.
          o Amla is a seasoned veteran with plenty of experience who will look to build big innings every game and De Kock is a star in the making, with over 50 games under his belt he is starting to really hit his potential and should Average over 50 this series.

Zampa to dominate on paper
          o Looking at the stats and thinking about how these games will play out Zampa will likely take junk time wickets near the end when South Africa look to accelerate quickly.
          o If South Africa don’t respect Zampa he can do some serious damage but the reality is they only need to see him off at 4 an over and they can take on the poor seam attack instead and be able to build an imposing total.


Series trading tips:

Backing overs
          o When South Africa bats first you could do very well by backing them and backing over run lines in the power play. I am expecting Australia’s bowlers to get hammered in the power play pull SA back through the middle and get hammered at the end as there opening attack and death bowling is lacking this series.

South Africa’s top order to fire
          o South Africa know they are top heavy in class as a batting unit so I expect them to stand up this series, if they lose early wickets I would expect them to consolidate and launch later in the innings.

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