We’ve been utilising the new selection and staking methodology for a couple of months now with great success, up over 85 units over the past 2 months.

As you would have noticed the service has transformed from one that was previously around 80-90% metropolitan/city racing, to one where there is significantly more betting being conducted on provincial & country meetings where my database analysis exposed some enormous edges and opportunities.

Essentially I was able to narrow down the key KPI factors that contribute towards horses winnings races at various tracks and class levels, many of which are ignored or not factored in by the bookies when setting their prices, or the wider market. It's a very unique approach and combination of figures and rankings that I've developed and are utilising, and one not being replicated elsewhere, hence the big edge.

However as we are now ramping towards Spring Carnival and the return of the top class horses, additionally you can expect plenty more action in the big Saturday races where long-term members will know we’ve had great success in 2013 and 2014.

Given we have enjoyed an outstanding run, coupled with entering the biggest, busiest and most lucrative betting period of the year, I wanted to make sure all members were armed and ready to maximise their profits in the upcoming months, so below are some thoughts to assist you going forward.

Firstly it’s clear that a substantial number of our horses are firming and winning. Stage Girl was $151 when the SMS went out, $101-$126 everywhere else, it started at an SP of $21 and won. We’ve had horses we’ve backed at $51 start at $5.

What’s interesting is for the most part it isn’t really our money that’s making these horses firm so dramatically. The prices for a lot of these runners have firmed late in betting, well after we have place our bets. At the end of the day the big betting syndicates bet late, and are identifying the horses we back as value even after we have backed them.

This gives us a big advantage of securing the best prices before the other sharp punters catch onto the big bookie mistakes. For example Stage Girl stayed at $126 for nearly half an hour after the SMS before starting to get backed and eventually tumbling into $21 before winning. Another good example was Dream With Me who was $34 with multiple bookies at the time of the SMS, and stayed that price for over 4.5 hours and was only heavily backed late in betting starting $14.

As you will have noticed I’ve been sending bets out generally between 9am and 11am, when every bookmaker available has prices. By this time most bookies are fairly aligned, most prices are similar and there’s usually only one or two flucs/rolls difference from one bookie to another. This means everyone should be obtaining very similar prices.

Overall my analysis has shown that certainly placing bets when the SMS and/or e-mail is received is the best way to go. There are significantly more firmers than drifters overall given the big edge over the market. Utilising a bookie with a buffer does help to offer that additional protection if a horse does happen to drift.

However we’ve also had some dramatic drifters win, 3 bigger recent ones that spring to mind are:

Low Flying: Officially recorded $7, started $17.90 best tote and over $20 Betfair SP
Saxon Coast: Officially recorded $4.20, started $8.20 best tote, $9,40 last matched betfair
Speedy Squib: Officially recorded $17, started $31 Corporates, $30 best tote and Betfair

I mentioned in the weekly wrap 3 days before Low Flying won that members should look to increase their stake on a dramatic drifter.

The Kelly Criterion (widely regarded as the best formula to use to determine the optimal size of a bet), suggests that to maximise long term profits, the greater the edge, the more you should bet. So an as example if you rate a horse a $3 chance and can get $7 in the market, you should bet MORE than if you could obtain $5 in the market.

This theorem, and the fact that there is no evidence whatsoever from our selections that dramatic drifters perform poorly (in fact of the limited big drifters, their winning strike rate at great prices is high), is why I recommend having another go at our runners if its price drifts say 50% or more above the recommended price. Doing so on just the 3 drifters mentioned above would have yielded an additional 22 unit profit.

In reviewing some of the main drifters I’ve noticed two interesting things. Firstly in WA they can drift markedly and win, the market appears quite backward there and underdeveloped, with market movements often not meaning much. Secondly, horses coming off a longish spell (say 120 days plus) also have a tendency to drift markedly and win. It seems the market takes a cue to see if there’s any support for a first up runner, and if not, it can just keep drifting and drifting as everyone avoids it. But often that can just be that the stable and connections don’t bet, or have the same uncertainty. The results show that if the figures mark it as a value bet and it rates high on the KPI factors I look at, then there is no issue if a first up runner drifts.


5 Key Tips for maximising results

1) Dynamic Odds

If you aren’t using dynamic odds you are costing yourself a fortune in additional profits. It amazes me there are members reporting that they are still not utilising this service. Even a small punter working full time will boost their profits substantially from using Dynamic Odds. You can check and compare prices with all your own bookies quickly on your mobile phone, and even place bets through your mobile with all your bookies using the dynamic odds mobile version. This is much quicker and more effective than betting through each bookie app separately. They even have a free trial so if you haven’t tried it yet, get onto it now in preparation for the big Spring period coming up.

2) Bookies with a buffer

If you haven’t got an account with any of these bookies, make sure you get one quickly as they offer additional features on top of basic fixed price betting. It can be worth at times taking a lower fixed price in order to have the potential benefit of 'drift protection' from one of these bookies.

Bet365 – Pay out best of fixed price or SP, whichever is higher. A good option but note best tote or Betfair SP will outperform SP on any drifter on the majority of occasions

Centrebet – Centrebest product pays out at higher of fixed price taken or best tote, whichever is higher. Available from 30 mins before metro races & 10 mins before country/provincial races

Club All Sports – Fixed+ product pays higher of fixed price taken & best tote for some metro races, or fixed price & home tote for some metro and all country & provincial races

3) Betfair

More often than not gets you the best odds on horses drifting in the market, and on horses at big prices. Is a must have. Can also use to back and lay horses for a guaranteed profit on our dramatic firmers as some members do successfully.

4) Read the member’s resources

There are 5 documents packed full of information in your member’s resources area that are well worth reading ahead of this big Spring period, covering topics such as how to get the best possible odds, how to avoid getting banned by the bookies, improving mindset, sound bankroll management and FAQs.

5) Additional late betting stake on big drifters

As mentioned this is an excellent way to boost your profits over and above official results so keep an eye out for these opportunities when they present themselves.


Queries and Feedback


At the end of the day this service is for you. If you have any questions or feedback whatsoever on any topic or how I can improve the service for you, please contact me anytime.

Here’s to a big and highly profitable Spring!

Dean