Feeling like a very quiet month with only 9.7u profit so far in October after 172.4u profit in the previous 2 months, but still plenty of the month to go, and difficult to complain about a profit.

In the Dean's Tips Member's Information Pack (DTMIP), pages 10 to 22 are all dedicated to providing you advice on how to get the best possible odds for yourself.

Ensure you give this another good read so that you give yourself every opportunity to maximise your results over the Spring Carnival.

All of the below is applicable whether you are able to monitor markets during the day, or just prefer to bet and forget by taking a mix of early fixed prices or BTSP/BFSP options. It is aimed to give you some assistance on which decision to make.

I've decided to focus on 3 additional key points that aren't directly referenced in the Pack. I will update the DTMIP with the below.

1) Metro/City v Country/Provincial

One key distinction is that prices on our runners for Metro/City races are not particularly influenced when bets are released, whereas for Country/Provincial races they can be.

For Metro/City races (the major raceday in each state typically on a Saturday and Wednesday), two good options are either betting through Bet365 with the SP guarantee (available to everyone now on all Victorian and New South Wales races thanks to the Minimum Bet Regulations), and/or use a Best of the Best product (highest of Best Tote and Top Fluc) offered by 6 different bookies. Betfair again is your friend on Metro races also with amazing prices and liquidity available throughout betting, even if just using the Betfair SP tool.

Note the standard tracks for Metro/City racing are:

NSW: Randwick, Rosehill, Warwick Farm and Canterbury
VIC: Flemington, Caulfield, Moonee Valley, Sandown Hillside and Sandown Lakeside
QLD: Eagle Farm and Doomben
SA: Morphettville and Morphettville Parks
WA: Ascot and Belmont

For Provincial & Country racing, taking some of the better fixed prices available at the time bets are sent is a good strategy, however if you are able to monitor prices even just on some days such as weekends, you will find through a combination of corporate bookies, Betfair and totes that you will get fantastic prices well above those recorded.

2) The advised unit stakes

The advised unit stakes are an excellent guide (and your biggest clue) on whether to bet early or late on selections.

The 'standard' amount we aim to collect on a win bet is 5 units. If we back a horse for 1 unit to win, and the horse is odds of $5, that's about normal as a good bet.

If the horse is odds of $10, then we stand to collect 10u if the horse wins, and that's a high confidence bet. This horse would firm in betting more often than not.

If the horse is odds of $2 we stand to collect 2u, so this is low confidence, or possibly just a saver bet. This horse would drift in betting more often than not.

So using the amount to be collected, with 5u as the 'barometer', is often a reasonable indication of whether a horse will firm or drift, particularly at the extreme ends of the spectrum. This can help you decide whether to back the horse early at a fixed price, or take a late betting option such as BTSP/BFSP if not able to monitor.

A good recent example was Flash Boy on Saturday at Bendigo. Advised 0.5ew but available market price was only $5. Given that's only a 2.5u win collect, locking in an early fixed price wasn't the way to go. Those who backed it with Bet365 got $9 SP, BTSP paid $10.90, BFSP $13, and last matched Betfair price was $14.50.

One question that is asked is when should a bet not be placed if the value has gone? In general terms, advised bets should be placed, but the best way to explain is with extreme examples.

Firstly let's say I advise 1u to win on a horse at $31 for a 31u collect. Should you back it if you miss early prices and it firms to $10? The answer is yes, because the 1u investment still stands to collect 10u and that's still a major collect and a big profit. The significant firming indicates simply how incorrect the initial market price was, but how much you stand to collect indicates the horse is still a value bet.

If I advise 0.1u on a horse at $31, and it firms to $10 before you have bet, well then you only stand to collect 1u if it wins backing it at $10, well below what you would normally expect to collect on a winner with the service, so you could give this horse a miss as long term there's little value to be had taking unders on those runners.

A better example is if I advise 1u to win at a horse at $5, and it firms to $2 before you've placed you bet. Again the original collect was 5u, but now with a 1u investment on a 2u collect, this no longer would be a worthwhile investment.

It's an art, not a science, and ultimately your decision, but the above will help guide you towards when to bet early or late (or not at all in rarer instances).

3) One tip in a race v multiple bets in a race

This is the other major point worth raising.

If there is one bet in a race, there is more likelihood of that runner firming (particularly if the expected win bet collect is anything above 4u).

When there are 2 bets in a race, it's often the case that one firms and one drifts.

However when there are multiple bets in a race (3 or more), it is very rare they will all firm. Usually maybe 1 firms and then rest drift, or often they will all drift. The only exception is if we aggressively back 3 runners at big odds to beat a short priced favourite. If the short favourite drifts, the others could firm. But again the aggressiveness of the staking will guide you on whether to bet early or late. However the more horses backed, the more that locking in fixed early prices without an SP buffer should be avoided unless the collect is well above 5u.

When there are multiple runners in a race it is often a good opportunity to monitor or use BFSP/BTSP.

Summary and other little insights

1) During the Spring Carnival for major metro/city meetings, prices don't fluctuate as quickly or dramatically, so don't panic and use Bet365, BOB or Betfair as much as possible.

2) Look at how much the potential collect is for the win bet below or above 5u to determine whether a horse is more likely to firm or drift

3) If there is 1 bet in a race and the potential collect is above 5u for the win bet, the horse will firm more often than not. But if there are multiple bets in a race, don't just lock in a fixed price on them all, as many or all will likely drift.

4) With NSW and Vic now having Minimum Bet Laws in place, Bet365 is right back in the picture for everyone. Use them where their price is above or close to the 3rd best fixed price in the e-mail as there is an SP buffer

5) Best Tote/SP (BTSP) and Betfair SP (BFSP) can be used by all, and the prices are usually much higher than the mid tote recorded for drifters. But blindly backing every horse at a fixed price, or every horse at BTSP/BFSP isn't recommended. Using the advice in this e-mail, combined with the advice on pages 10-17 in the DTMIP is what is advised to decide whether to take a fixed price, BTSP/BFSP, or a split of each.

6) For place bets at odds under $2.50, on metro races where you can get Best Tote for the place, this is usually better than taking a fixed price. Place prices are often at high market percentages early for runners at the short end of the market, and often the top tote ends up paying large, so place bets at best tote are recommended at $2.50 or below. However when we bet aggressively on runners to place at larger odds, taking a fixed price is recommended.

7) Remember runners that are definitely expected to firm against the advised price are marked with an (F). All other runners often firm a while after the bet is advised, but then drift back out in betting. The key is not to panic if you miss early prices. You can either take a fixed price above or close to the advised price, or if you miss the good early prices, bet late, use Bet365, or use BTSP or BFSP on these runners. Many members do say 50/50 Bet365 or BTSP/BFSP and that works well for them. But you may use say 75/25 or 25/75 splits depending on the circumstances and all of the advice above.

8) Lastly don't worry about always trying to get the best possible price every time. It isn't possible, or required. We've made over 220u profit in the last 7 months easily achieved by following the advice in the DTMIP and here. Constant improvement in your betting practices will mean constant improvement in your long term results, and that's the key to long term success with your betting. Take a couple of minutes out every day (or just once every now and then) to review the fluctuations and closing prices available of runners we back using dynamic odds and you will soon open your eyes to the potential opportunities.

Hope this helps as we ramp up towards a very busy and profitable Spring Carnival climax over the next 3 weeks (if history is anything to go by), and please do ask if you have any queries at all.

All the best

Dean