Just wanted to send out a note to assist you in deciding when to take a fixed price over betting late using best tote & SP / Betfair SP / Centrebest / monitoring.

Firstly please ensure you read the link below, which was e-mailed to all members on August 19. All of the information is valuable and still holds true now.

1)

http://www.horseracingprofessionals.com.au/blog/Special-Membership-Message-sent-to-members-on-Aug-19/

However to provide some additional guidance please see the below:

2) Overall, as a general, basic blanket statement, you are better taking early fixed prices than betting late on best tote or betfair

3) Certainly for horses at double figure odds or greater, you are usually better off taking the best fixed prices available. More firm than drift at double figure odds and above

4) For horses at the shorter end of the market, often Betfair SP / Betfair / Centrebest etc yield similar results overall than betting early, but there are swings and roundabouts. So if you miss a recommended early price, that is a reasonable alternative at the shorter end of the market

5) Generally horses firm more in provincial / country markets, and the prices hold up better in city/metro races

6) When backing one horse in a race, it often firms

7) When backing multiple horses in a race, they often drift

8) When I advise taking a fixed price with bookie that is not Bet365 or Betting Club, that denotes clearly I think the horse will firm, and you should take the best fixed price

9) When I advise taking a price with Centrebest, best tote/SP or BOB, that suggests I think the horse will drift from its current fixed price

10) In particular, when I advise taking a price with Bet365 or Betting Club that is lower than the best fixed available, that usually suggests I think the horse will drift (and I want the one tote or SP buffer)

11) If you are still unsure, such as a day where you may have missed the best prices, often splitting your bet 50/50 between early fixed and late tote/betfair is a good option.

12) If at any time you lock in an early price and then the horse drifts a fair bit (close to 50% or more), it is certainly worth backing again to get your average price up, as a way to exceed official results. There have been plenty of significant drifters that have won at odds far greater than official prices. But remember, more often than not betting early is better than betting late. It's simply about taking additional advantage when one drifts.

Note I am currently doing some detailed analysis on prices and will give even more thoughts and guidance on getting the best prices once I have completed this analysis.

Going forward I am also going to add an (F) next to horses that I expect to definitely firm going forward. This (F) means both take best Fixed price, and that the horse is expected to Firm. If there is no (F), it means I am unsure which way the market will go on the horse, which means if you miss out on the recommended price, you can choose between taking the early fixed or betting late, based on the advice above. Hopefully this assists you in your decisions.

Any questions please let me know.

All the best.

Dean