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Golf - The Masters at Augusta
Our Golf analyst John has been a professional golfer since 1971 (45 years). He played in two British Opens, won five professional events including two national championships, was a commentator on all professional events in New Zealand for twenty years, and commentated on the four majors, plus the Espirito Santo, the Eisenhower and the Australian Open. He was also a director of the Australasian PGA tour for eight years. Best of all he now spends most of his time these days analysing and betting on golf.
His Golf service has generated $5,858 profit at 50.8% POT since beginning in March 2016, including tipping tournament winners such as Brian Stuard at $1000 in the Zurich Classic and Sam Brazel at $340 in the Hong Kong Open.
His thoughts on the Masters are available below.
Can you remember the first time you saw the Masters at Augusta, Georgia?
Was it when Curtis Strange shot 80 in the first round and lead by two but in trying to extend his lead dumped his second shot in the creek at 13. Or Australia's own Jack Newton almost catching Seve Ballesteros having started eleven behind. Or was it Nick Faldo overtaking and then streeting Greg Norman. What about Bubba hooking a wedge forty yards from the trees on ten in the playoff to win. Or perhaps even later Bubba bombing it 370 yards on the fifteenth on his way to his second green jacket.
You may remember the azaleas and rhododendrons, or the pond on twelve, but whatever, the viewing of the back nine at Augusta is compulsory for sports lovers worldwide.
From a smart punting perspective there are some real possibilities at the Masters.
Left handers have a great record over the last twenty years. Mickelson, Bubba and before him the Canadian Mike Weir have all won. As Lee Trevino once said, you can talk to a fade, but a hook won't listen, and right handers have to hook the ball on the key par fives, eight, thirteen and fifteen. Mickelson and Bubba are so long they can fade it on these holes and still reach.
Winners can win multiple masters and those who have had a chance and missed out do not often win, so past winners need to be included in any early calculations. Great putters always do well, the greens are slick and feature big slopes.
So the ideal potential winners are long, putt very well, and naturally move the ball right to left.
All that is at the start. The real chances come after they get going. First round leaders rarely win, so an opportunity exists to lay the first round leader, particularly if you have found him at big odds initially. I tend to have a few selections at big odds and then crush if they do well initially, and wait for the last round to pick winners from those three and four behind. Many winners have come from 4 or more back heading into the last round.
A lead of five or six may not be enough if the player has never won here before.
There are often playoffs at the Masters, playoffs represent a real chance for punters, particularly multiple players involved. If you are betting on Betfair, a player who hits a good drive may shorten to $1.66 and then miss the green and drift to $2.20, which represents a real opportunity. Just ensure that your TV feed is live if you are betting as punters on course have up to a five second advantage in some telecasts.
Dustin Johnson and his latest form with three successive wins is the talking point of the 2017 US Masters.
Jordan Spieth has never played outside the last group in all the Masters he has played winning one and perhaps should have won three.
The difficult course requires an excellent long game coupled with a terrific short game and fantastic imagination on the undulating putting greens.
Perhaps the greatest attribute the winner needs is the ability to overcome fear.
As Geoff Ogilvy stated last week, “every hole contains a potential train wreck” that is what dominates the players’ minds.
One player who impresses me lately is the young Spaniard John Rahm.
He appears to have all of the required ingredients. - $30
Bubba Watson has won two green jackets, and a putting tip he recently received may have enhanced his chances.-$50
Tommy Fleetwood is showing form in WGC events against the top players-$120
Players coming back into form I also like include Billy Horschel at $200, Ross Fisher at $180, Charley Hoffman at $180, Ryan Moore at $220, Pat Perez at $350 and Angel Cabrera at $200
Players that are well over the odds include Sean O’Hair at $750, Roberto Castro at $960, Si Woo Kim at $1000 and Brian Stuard at $1000.