In this interview conducted by Nadia Horne on RSN - Racing & Sports, Dean Evans from Winning Edge Investments discusses interstate racing statistics.

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Nadia Horne: We’ve got Dean the Trial Spy with us today. We’re going to talk about assessing form through different states, which can always be a massive challenge. As we know, assessing different metropolitan and provincial form lines can be a massive challenge when you are trying to find value and the likely winner of a race but then, when you add into the mix when that horse has had their last start, or a variety of starts, in a different state, it can be a real challenge in trying to line that form up and it’s one part of form analysis which can be very hard to quantify, Dean.

Dean the Trial Spy: That’s right. We did some analysis on horses whose last out was in a different state than today and you know, it is interesting. We ran this analysis from 2010 to 2013 and then re-ran it from September 13 to 2015 and some of the profit percentages have changed. So it’s interesting to see how the betting market factors these sorts of things in.

Nadia Horne: Okay, well let’s talk a little bit about some states. So, what about horses going from, say, New South Wales to Victoria?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, so just to clarify, the way we’ve done it, that is how it differs to the best tote benchmark for the runners, which is an 8% loss on turnover, but the group loses 6% on turnover and that puts it at +2%. But, unclear 1:21 the average and New South Wales to Vic, they were plus 3% on 2080 bets overall and plus 9% for 640 metro bets, and this has been a consistent theme, even when we originally ran the data between 2010 and 2013 as well.  So, for the past 5 years, New South Wales horses have been undervalued by the market when having their first Victorian run and are outperforming expectations and New South Wales horses have certainly won plenty of big races during the last few Flemington carnivals and throughout the year and Chris Waller, in particular, certainly enjoyed plenty success but the market still provides some value there.

Nadia Horne: Okay, so let’s talk a little bit about the different states. So, what about Victorians going to New South Wales?

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 10% for 1900 bets and minus 12% for 530 metro bets and unclear 2:16 data is also consistent over the past 5 years. So, the Victorian invaders to New South Wales have been strongly over bet by the public and, as a whole, appear to be very poor betting propositions.

Nadia Horne: Horses going from New South Wales to Queensland?

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 16% for 2680 bets and minus 15% for metro bets. It’s interesting, when we ran this data between 2010 and 2013, it was around 7% better than average backing New South Wales horses in Queensland metro races, but that has turned around and become a very poor betting proposition.  One potential reason for this might be a lot more New South Wales horses being sent to Queensland, who’ve won good enough to win in New South Wales, Particularly a lot of syndication companies do this to try and win prize money for their owners and, it appears the market is just overvaluing the form of the New South Wales horses who can’t cut it there and, who knows, maybe with the bigger prize money on offer in Queensland now, 65k on Saturdays? 3:16, the standard is picking up and more good horses are staying there and winning races, rather than crossing the border south.

Nadia Horne: Queensland horses to New South Wales?

Dean the Trial Spy: Plus 1% for 2480 bets in total, but minus 29% for 250 metro bets. So, overall the Queensland runners in New South Wales run to market expectations at country/provincial level, but for metro they appear way over bet and performing quite poorly. 

Nadia Horne: We’ve also got horses going from Victoria to Queensland.

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 3% for 410 bets and plus 8% for 90 metro bets, so Victorians performed very well in Queensland in recent years and a positive betting proposition on that data, but it is a fairly small sample size as well.

Nadia Horne: Okay, so it’s not a lot of data to work off of. Queensland horses come to Victoria: I suppose you see a lot of them maybe carnival time?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, definitely. Minus 23% over 230 bets and minus 5% for 130 metro bets. So, in comparison, the Queensland horses don’t appear to be brilliant betting propositions when coming to Victoria for the first run and are underperforming market expectations.

Nadia Horne: South Australians coming to Victoria?

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 11% for 1770 bets and 20% below average for the 560 metro bets. So again, South Australians travelling to Victoria for the first run are over bet and often find the unclear 4:42 class too much and perhaps, when they are winning, they’re fairly short 4:45 the market anyway.

Nadia Horne: What about the Victorians going over to South Australia, which we see a lot more of?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there’s a lot of that going on. 4% below average on 2010 bets and minus 3% for metro bets. So, also performing that little bit below market expectations but, interestingly overall, you know, apart from New South Wales runners having their first run in Victoria, and Victorians in Queensland, it appears the market, overall, is over betting horses having their first run in a new state, and generally, those type appear to be poor betting propositions when compared, you know, presumably to the local runners.

Nadia Horne: Well, you bring up some very interesting points. So, just all in all, who’s got the best stats overall for the moving of states?

Dean the Trial Spy: Definitely New South Wales horses coming to Victoria and that’s been a consistent theme over the last 5 years. They are undoubtedly the best betting proposition in the city area, if you see a New South Wales horse coming to Victoria, it’s worth giving it a very close look. 

Nadia Horne: Brilliant. Thanks for that, Dean. 

Dean the Trial Spy: No problem. Thanks Nadia.

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy, who will be joining us tomorrow for his segment. So take note that we will be catching up with Dean tomorrow.

Nadia Horne: We’ve got Dean the Trial Spy with us today. We’re going to talk about assessing form through different states, which can always be a massive challenge. As we know, assessing different metropolitan and provincial form lines can be a massive challenge when you are trying to find value and the likely winner of a race but then, when you add into the mix when that horse has had their last start, or a variety of starts, in a different state, it can be a real challenge in trying to line that form up and it’s one part of form analysis which can be very hard to quantify, Dean.

Dean the Trial Spy: That’s right. We did some analysis on horses whose last out was in a different state than today and you know, it is interesting. We ran this analysis from 2010 to 2013 and then re-ran it from September 13 to 2015 and some of the profit percentages have changed. So it’s interesting to see how the betting market factors these sorts of things in.

Nadia Horne: Okay, well let’s talk a little bit about some states. So, what about horses going from, say, New South Wales to Victoria?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, so just to clarify, the way we’ve done it, that is how it differs to the best tote benchmark for the runners, which is an 8% loss on turnover, but the group loses 6% on turnover and that puts it at +2%. But, unclear 1:21 the average and New South Wales to Vic, they were plus 3% on 2080 bets overall and plus 9% for 640 metro bets, and this has been a consistent theme, even when we originally ran the data between 2010 and 2013 as well.  So, for the past 5 years, New South Wales horses have been undervalued by the market when having their first Victorian run and are outperforming expectations and New South Wales horses have certainly won plenty of big races during the last few Flemington carnivals and throughout the year and Chris Waller, in particular, certainly enjoyed plenty success but the market still provides some value there.

Nadia Horne: Okay, so let’s talk a little bit about the different states. So, what about Victorians going to New South Wales?

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 10% for 1900 bets and minus 12% for 530 metro bets and unclear 2:16 data is also consistent over the past 5 years. So, the Victorian invaders to New South Wales have been strongly over bet by the public and, as a whole, appear to be very poor betting propositions.

Nadia Horne: Horses going from New South Wales to Queensland?

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 16% for 2680 bets and minus 15% for metro bets. It’s interesting, when we ran this data between 2010 and 2013, it was around 7% better than average backing New South Wales horses in Queensland metro races, but that has turned around and become a very poor betting proposition.  One potential reason for this might be a lot more New South Wales horses being sent to Queensland, who’ve won good enough to win in New South Wales, Particularly a lot of syndication companies do this to try and win prize money for their owners and, it appears the market is just overvaluing the form of the New South Wales horses who can’t cut it there and, who knows, maybe with the bigger prize money on offer in Queensland now, 65k on Saturdays? 3:16, the standard is picking up and more good horses are staying there and winning races, rather than crossing the border south.

Nadia Horne: Queensland horses to New South Wales?

Dean the Trial Spy: Plus 1% for 2480 bets in total, but minus 29% for 250 metro bets. So, overall the Queensland runners in New South Wales run to market expectations at country/provincial level, but for metro they appear way over bet and performing quite poorly. 

Nadia Horne: We’ve also got horses going from Victoria to Queensland.

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 3% for 410 bets and plus 8% for 90 metro bets, so Victorians performed very well in Queensland in recent years and a positive betting proposition on that data, but it is a fairly small sample size as well.

Nadia Horne: Okay, so it’s not a lot of data to work off of. Queensland horses come to Victoria: I suppose you see a lot of them maybe carnival time?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, definitely. Minus 23% over 230 bets and minus 5% for 130 metro bets. So, in comparison, the Queensland horses don’t appear to be brilliant betting propositions when coming to Victoria for the first run and are underperforming market expectations.

Nadia Horne: South Australians coming to Victoria?

Dean the Trial Spy: Minus 11% for 1770 bets and 20% below average for the 560 metro bets. So again, South Australians travelling to Victoria for the first run are over bet and often find the unclear 4:42 class too much and perhaps, when they are winning, they’re fairly short 4:45 the market anyway.

Nadia Horne: What about the Victorians going over to South Australia, which we see a lot more of?

Dean the Trial Spy: Yeah, there’s a lot of that going on. 4% below average on 2010 bets and minus 3% for metro bets. So, also performing that little bit below market expectations but, interestingly overall, you know, apart from New South Wales runners having their first run in Victoria, and Victorians in Queensland, it appears the market, overall, is over betting horses having their first run in a new state, and generally, those type appear to be poor betting propositions when compared, you know, presumably to the local runners.

Nadia Horne: Well, you bring up some very interesting points. So, just all in all, who’s got the best stats overall for the moving of states?

Dean the Trial Spy: Definitely New South Wales horses coming to Victoria and that’s been a consistent theme over the last 5 years. They are undoubtedly the best betting proposition in the city area, if you see a New South Wales horse coming to Victoria, it’s worth giving it a very close look. 

Nadia Horne: Brilliant. Thanks for that, Dean. 

Dean the Trial Spy: No problem. Thanks Nadia.

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy, who will be joining us tomorrow for his segment. So take note that we will be catching up with Dean tomorrow.

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