Sports Betting: Middling Opportunity:

Firstly, I would like to welcome all members to this new AFL/NRL service.

I am confident that we will have a great year together and whilst, I know not every weekend will be as good as last week (+7.4U), I do expect to be well in the positive come the end of 2015. In all 4 years of punting, I have made a profit of at least 50U in each season and I cannot see why this year will be any different.

In addition to researching and sending out plays, I will also be writing up articles that will hopefully add insight into my plays.

The first article of this series will attempt to explain the art of ‘hitting a middle’. This is a phrase all professional sports punters are aware of, and something bookies hate.

“Hitting a middle” is defined as betting on both teams in the same event, either at the same time or at different times, in the hope that both bets will win.

It is quite rare but very profitable when it comes off. The low liability makes it a very attractive option too.

There are 2 types of ‘middles’.

One, when a middle opportunity is present at this moment.

Two, when we predict a middle opportunity will open up, which means taking bets at different times.

EXAMPLE 1:

The below example is when a “middle” exists at this moment.

I.E:
NRL: Team A vs Team B
Odds:
Pinnacle Sports: Team A (+4.5) vs Team B (-4.5) @ $1.90
Bet365: Team A (+6.5) vs Team B (+6.5) @ $1.90

The middle opportunity here is Team B (-4.5) & Team A (+6.5)

We bet 2U Team B -4.5 @ $1.90 (Pinnacle Sports) &
We bet 2U Team A +6.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

If Team B wins by 5 or 6 points, both bets win and we make a profit of
4U x 0.9 = 3.6U

If Team B does not win by 5 or 6 points, we lose 0.2U, irrespective of which bet wins. (2U x 0.9) – 2U = -0.2U

Essentially we are getting odds of $18 to Team B to win by 5/6 points
(0.2U risk to win 3.6U)

EXAMPLE 2:

The below example is when we presume a middle will eventuate due to line movement.

I.E.
01/01:
NRL: Team A vs Team B
Pinnacle Sports: Team A (+4.5) vs Team B (-4.5) @ $1.90

We expect Team B will firm (line will go out) because Team A has a player that will not play - the bookies do not know about this yet.

We bet 2U Team B -4.5 @ $1.90 (Pinnacle Sports) now

2 days later, our suspicions are confirmed and in fact, Team A loses an important player. As such, line moves.

03/01:
Pinnacle Sports: Team A (+6.5) vs Team B (-6.5) @ $1.90

We now bet 2U Team A +6.5 @ $1.90 (Pinnacle Sports).

This leaves us with 2U Team B -4.5 and 2U Team A +6.5.
Exactly the same situation as above (0.2U risk to win 3.6U if Team B wins by 5 or 6 points)

Comparing Example 1 to Example 2:

The benefits to Example 1 is that there is less that can go wrong with it as you do not have to predict which way a line will move.

However, the drawback to Example 1 is that you may not be able to get as much as you want with one bookie and this could leave your other bet exposed. It is essential you bet with the bookie that you think will accept a lower stake first so that this doesn’t happen.

The benefit to Example 2 is that you won’t have any problems getting money on because it is with the same bookie & limits only continue to increase as we get closer to game time.

The drawback to Example 2 is that you need to be able to correctly predict which way a line will move. If the line goes the other way, you can leave yourself exposed.

With Example 1 bookies have software to look for arb/middle bets, and accounts can get flagged quickly. Additionally you won’t be able to get as much on as lines will move.

As a result I will only be sending out middle opportunities using Example 2 as I have agreed to record all bets with Pinnacle Sports this year.

Will