Australian Oaks Pedigree Preview

 

Overview

 

The Australian Oaks is a test of stamina for 3yo fillies. The question is which fillies have the class and aptitude to run a strong 2400m. That’s the question we need to answer to help make an informed investment decision.

 

Pedigree analysis allows you to make an assessment of any horse’s inherited racing ability and speed profile which provides an insight as to its optimal racing distance.

 

What is pedigree analysis?

 

In simple terms, pedigree analysis is the study of any given horse’s ancestors for patterns of inheritance that have contributed to the horses racing ability (or predicated racing ability) both in terms of quality and in terms of preferred distance.

 

In order to view a horses ancestors, I use a software program named TesioPower. The software enables you to view a horse’s pedigree back multiple generations.

 

There are a number of factors I analyse in determining a horse’s inherited racing ability.

 

1. Inbreeding – this is the duplication of successful ancestors (either male or female) in a pedigree within the 4th generation.

 

2. Line Breeding – this is the duplication of successful ancestors (either male or female) in a pedigree in the 5th generation and beyond.

 

3. Rasmussen Factor – this is a special condition where a successful female ancestor is duplicated in a pedigree through two (or more) different offspring.

 

Inherited Racing Ability

 

Once I have analysed a pedigree, I give it a rating based upon what I believe its inherited racing ability is. The below table provides meanings in relation to the ratings assigned.

 

 

 

Pedigree Rating	Pedigree Rating Definition	Description
AAA	Superior inherited genetic racing ability	Inherited genetic ability that aligns to Group 1 level racing
A	Excellent inherited genetic racing ability	Inherited genetic ability that aligns to Group or Listed level racing
B	Good inherited genetic racing ability	Inherited genetic ability that aligns to Metropolitan level racing
C	Average inherited genetic racing ability	Inherited genetic ability that aligns to Provincial level racing
D	Below average inherited genetic racing ability	Inherited genetic ability that aligns to Country level racing

 

 

Speed Profile

 

Using the TesioPower pedigree software a speed profile for any pedigree can be obtained. That speed profile is based on presence of ‘Chefs de Race’ (about 200 successful stallions worldwide) that are present within the first 4 generations of any horse’s pedigree.

 

Points are assigned across five aptitudes – Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional.  The ‘Brilliant’ and ‘Intermediate’ aptitudes basically identify a preference for shorter distances (up to a mile) with ‘Classic’, ’Solid’ and ‘Professional’ aptitudes identifying a preference for longer distance races.

 

So let’s analyse this year’s Australian Oaks field …..

 

2018 Australian Oaks

 

1 – Aloisia (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
3	2.5	13.5	3.5	1.5

 

From Azamour a quality G1 miler with dam by Group winning 2yo in Perfectly Ready. Ran a respectable race in the 2017 VRC Oaks. Can she is stay – pedigree says likely to get the 2400m but query any further. Has to be a risk against some of these better credentialed staying breeds.

 

2– Hiyaam (A grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
4.5	2.5	25	6	5

 

By High Chaparral (champion English stayer and stallion) from a Zabeel mare. Female family has some serious staying depth. Hit line nicely in VRC Oaks from well back and little luck in run. Speed profile suggests 3200m won’t be an issue so you know she will be strong at the finish.

 

 

 

3 – Unforgotten (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
4	6.5	25	3	0.5

 

By champion Australian sprinter/miler and leading sire Fastnet Rock from a Galileo mare. From that would seem a possible distance risk. Has some stamina in her female family but looks a distance query on her speed profile rating. Never raced past 2000m.

 

4 – Savvy Coup (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
7.5	5	13.5	2	4

 

By Savabeel (by Zabeel) so no surprise plenty of staying blood here. Dam by Pins a quality G1 winning miler and champion NZ stallion. Speed profile says will love 2400m and beyond. Her only run at 2400m won the New Zealand Oaks.

 

5 – Luvaluva (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
6.5	4	16	2	0.5

 

By Mastercraftsman (G1 winner up to 2000m) from a Galileo mare. Speed profile says OK to 2000m but a risk at the longer trips. Only run past 2000m was a 4th in the VRC Oaks when every chance. Looks a risk against some of these at the trip.

 

6 – Bring Me Roses (A grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
5.5	6	17.5	4.5	1.5

 

By High Chaparral (champion stayer and sire) with dam by Polish Patriot. Has a deep female staying pedigree and that’s supported by her speed profile that’s says further the better. Only run past 2000m run 2nd in the VRC Oaks.

 

7– Contessa Vanessa (A grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
2.5	6.5	16	3	0

 

By the speedy Bullbars (winner up to 1400m) from a Lonhro mare. Speed profile says no worries to 2000m but a real query after that. Did place in the NZ Oaks last start and that might say something about the form from that race.

 

 

 

8 – Danzdanzdance (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
4.5	8	17.5	0.5	0.5

 

Another by Mastercraftsman this time from a Danzero (G1 winner of the Golden Slipper). Speed profile says suited to a mile and a query past that. Placed in the NZ Derby but that form has not stood up this carnival.

9 – Chilly Cha Cha (C grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
5.5	3.5	15	2	1

 

Sounding like a broken record but another one by Mastercraftsman. This time from a High Chaparral mare. Quite a speedy female family on paper even though dam is by High Chaparral. Speed profile says 2000m ok but huge queries past that.

10 – She’s A Treasure (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
7.5	3.5	18	0.5	0.5

 

Surprise surprise another one by Mastercraftsman. This one from an O’Reilly mare.

Speed profile says suited to a mile and maybe a touch further. Massive risk out to this trip.

 

11 – Miss Admiration (B grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
9	5.5	8	0.5	0.5

 

By G1 winning 2yo in Sebring from a Street Cry mare. On speed profile this should be a sprinter/miler but managed to run a tiring 4th in the VRC Oaks after a perfect run. Query at the trip this class.

 

12 – Naivasha (AAA grade pedigree rating)

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
2.5	0.5	14	2	2

 

By Starcraft (winner G1 AJC Derby) from a Helenus mare. Speed profile says 2400m and beyond are right up its alley. Won its 3rd race start over 2100m by 7 lengths hard held. Trip no worries but has it got the class?

 

 

 

13 – Wild Sea (A grade pedigree rating)

 

Brilliant	Intermediate	Classic	Solid	Professional
7	1	12	4	3

 

By multiple G1 stayer in Dalakhani from Galileo mare. Speed profile says 2400m and beyond are going to suit. Won its 2nd race start by a space over 2200m. Again, trip looks suitable but where is it placed class wise?

 

Analysis of speed profiles

Analysing the race from a speed profile perspective, you need to look for horses that have a genetic profile that suggests distance won’t be an issue. That leaves us with Hiyaam, Savvy Coup, Bring Me Roses, Naivasha and Wild Sea.

 

The Final Word

For mine it’s clearly Hiyaam on top. With an A grade pedigree and no questions about its staying ability it looks well in this race. Its two runs this preparation say its come back a much-improved horse and looks to peak here at its 3rd run back.

The real smokies might be the bottom two in Naivasha and Wild Sea who will love the extra distance if they have enough class. Their pedigree ratings (AAA grade and A grade respectively) suggest they just might have some.

Best of luck with all your investments.