Below is the full interview with our Pedigree expert Geoff McMurray.

Geoff has been studying pedigree analysis of race horses for the last 20 years. His study was primarily targeted for the mating of broodmares with stallions, and the selection of weanlings and yearlings at sales. Geoff has provided both services to many leading trainers including Matt Laurie and David Brideoake. Geoff has provided pedigree analysis services, either for breeding or sales selection, in relation to a number of high quality horses including Group 1 winner Griante, Group 1 placegetter Bondeiger, and Group 3 winner Thames Court to name just a few.

A few years ago, whilst trying to study early season 2yo races, Geoff recognised that the application of pedigree analysis could be utilised in studying race form. In that time he has developed a methodology that consistently produces winners not only in 2yo races but in maidens where you often are confronted with a number of first starters.

Geoff has spent the last couple of years working with a number of leading stables in Melbourne as their Racing Manager. His knowledge of the racing industry and pedigree analysis skills provide him with a unique ability to identify winners where others cannot.

Geoff uses a combination of pedigree analysis, video and sectional analysis and detailed form analysis of weights, barriers and jockeys in targeting value winners.

Over the past two months Geoff has rated a number horses on top from his pedigree analysis including:
Astro Castro (Flemington) 1st @ $100
Sneakers (Cranbourne) 1st @ $26
Benz (Morphetville Park) 1st @ $12
Mystified (Morphettville) 1st @ $15
Rat With A Goldtooth (Murtoa) 2nd @ $50
and the first 2yo race winner in Australia for the 2016-17 racing season at Toowoomba in Pure Luck @ $4.

How long have you been betting profitably using Breeding as the basis for selections?

The focus of my pedigree analysis was originally for planning breeding matings and weanling and yearling sales selection. However I decided three years ago to use my pedigree analysis skills as a tool in assessing 2yo races where no form was available. I have found the use of pedigree analysis so profitable with 2yos I am now using it on maiden races with first starters also.

Why do you focus on Breeding particularly? Where do you find the biggest edges?

The biggest advantage in assessing a horse in regard to its inherited genetic ability is that very few others do. It provides an assessment of a horse’s inherited racing ability both in terms of class and preferred distance. That advantage I have found provides benefits in three key areas: 1) I can pinpoint winners in races other people don’t even bother assessing; 2) I can either confirm or question exposed form in maiden races; and 3) I can find horses on breeding that often provide huge value.

What else do you look at when placing bets?

I have developed a methodology that is very structured. Firstly I assess all horses’ genetic strengths and weaknesses. Secondly I look at exposed barrier trial and jump out form. Thirdly I develop a speed map or race profile based on the first two assessments placing a lot of emphasis on barrier draws. Lastly I look at jockeys. I want good jockeys and/or ones in form, especially when they need have to negotiate a tricky barrier. Then it’s down to finding value.

How long before a race will bets normally be released?

Daily selections will be available around 10am. This allows time to reassess races after race morning scratchings.

What information do you provide with your tips?

A pedigree and horse/race assessment will be provided with each tip. An overall race assessment including advised units to invest is provided, as well as exotic bet selections if I believe there is an opportunity to profit through multiple quality pedigree runners in the race.

What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?

An annualised turnover on profit of ~12% can realistically be expected.

Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use?

I personally like to use mainly CrownBet and Betfair. I have a few issues “getting on” with other online bookmakers, but best not to mention them here.

Which odds comparison sites do you recommend?

Dynamic Odds.

Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the race starts?

A horse with a strong genetic pedigree that has trialled well is often well backed and as such taking early prices can provide the best value. Horses with a strong genetic pedigree that have no exposed form however are often not considered by the market. Waiting until closer to the race often leads to the best value. As such, information will be provided in the assessment of each horse.

Who does this service suit?

Using pedigree assessment, this suits those punters who are keen to seek an advantage by betting through a unique methodology on horses most punters and professionals alike are not focusing on, meaning fantastic value is obtained and a big edge held over the market.

Any profit guarantee?

If the subscription is not showing a profit after 3 months, then an additional 3 month subscription will be provided for free.

Will I be able to get a decent bet on?

Given selections will be given out on race mornings around 10am when all bookies have prices available, then there should not be an issue of getting on. Additionally, because this service is very different to the norm using methods used by very few if any other punters, horses oftentimes will drift further out to even bigger prices, meaning getting set should be no issue whatsoever.

How will results be recorded?

3rd best fixed price of mid tote

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