Are you aware of the pitfalls and opportunities with pre-post betting on feature races?

In this interview conducted by Nadia Horne on RSN - Racing & Sports, Dean The Trial Spy discusses the pitfalls of pre post betting in feature races futures markets.

Read the Interview transcription here:

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy is with us and today we are going to talk a little bit about pre-post betting as we do head into the autumn carnivals in both Melbourne and Sydney. There are definitely some pitfalls that punters should really take note of when you are betting pre-post, Dean?

Dean The Trial Spy: Yes absolutely, the big odds on offer in early pre-post betting can look enticing at times, but it can be hard enough to tip the winner on race day when you know the field, form and track conditions but trying to do that months or even weeks before the race has a huge degree of difficulty and can be risky.

Nadia Horne: Let’s talk about some of the negatives with pre-post betting. The obvious one is when a horse suffers an injury.

Dean The Trial Spy: Horses can suffer from an enormous number of injuries they’re a 500kg plus animal on 0:50 unclear legs and there are plenty of ways they can injure themselves or suffer from illnesses that prevent them from even making it to the barriers on the big day. Betting months or even weeks out from a big race can be fraught with danger just for that reason alone.

Nadia Horne: Some horses we see in a lot of the main races are simply not qualified for that race yet

Dean The Trial Spy: Often even horses that are heavy in the market are not even qualified for the race, a Golden Slippers or Melbourne Cup have stringent qualifying conditions so you have to ask yourself whether your horse is likely to even make the race.

Nadia Horne: Another factor on qualifying is also some horses aren’t even heading that way.

Dean The Trial Spy: That’s right. A horse you’re looking to back in the Melbourne Cup might actually be targeting the Cox Plate or the Caulfield Cup as its main Spring goal, or a Slipper horse may well be aimed at the Sires or Champagne.

Nadia Horne: When you have a look at a lot of big major races through both states, these horses have to travel to get there. Horses are animals and they do experience some issues in travelling.

Dean The Trial Spy: A lot of the overseas horses nominated might not even travel at all and those that do make it often struggle to acclimatise to local conditions quickly. The hype on many of the European horses often outweighs their ability to adapt to our different style of racing.

Nadia Horne: One other point you have to take in consideration, your betting without having all the data and to be able to assess all the variables, you don’t know what the weather is going to be you don’t know what the the track condition is going to be on the day just to name but a few.

Dean The Trial Spy: On race day the surface can be anywhere from an absolute bog heavy 10 to very firm so if you are betting early you need to be very confident that your horse can handle all conditions.

Nadia Horne: Now the thing is the barrier draw is another one.

Dean The Trial Spy: You’re not going to know the track conditions, prevailing bias of the day and where your horse will be drawn and whether the horse will even have a chance from the drawn when the gates open

Nadia Horne: And also you don’t really know a that stage if you are taking poor odds.

Dean The Trial Spy: This is probably the biggest issue of all because taking unders in any form of punting is a fast track to the poor house. If you look at the pre-post markets they are often framed something like 175%. Yet on the day of the race you’ll be able to shop around, something like the Melbourne Cup you can often get as close to 100% as you’ll ever find.

To give you an idea of how heavily a 175% market is weighted in the bookies favour, it’s the equivalent of taking $1.14 each of two in a two-horse race. Or $1.70 for each runner in a three-horse race.

So even if your early pick makes it say to the Melbourne Cup or Golden Slipper it usually will start at longer odds on the day and you would have been better off waiting. Rather than taking all that risk for potentially a negative return!

Nadia Horne: Those are some good points that you bring up. Also some points that you can take into consideration where a horse may end up being under the odds in a lot of these circumstances is horses who trial well or jump-out well. These can be overbet in a lot of futures markets.

Dean The Trial Spy: They can be. I think there are opportunities when a horse is trialing very well. With my Trial Spy service in August 2013 I sent out a futures bet to members to back Zoustar at $17 to win the Golden Rose on the back of an outstanding trial at Rosehill early August when he ran an excellent 2nd beaten a nose in a quick time and the horse managed to come from the outside barrier to win. So trials can give a real indication of whether a horse has improved from its first campaign and is going well into the current one, but again you want to be making sure that you are getting a value price.

Nadia Horne: Ok, so it’s trying to read those trials correctly?

Dean The Trial Spy: Yes and as you say, some of them can look very speedy and impressive and be under as well because some might run well in the campaign but in big pre-post races you’re betting on they might be done by the time that race comes around.

Nadia Horne: Sometimes when you see a horse very early on in a campaign, they do have signals that they will be a massive improver as well?

Dean The Trial Spy: Yes. Again trials can be a big indicator of this, but some horses from their race track performances also can show signs that they have plenty of improvement to come and have done everything asked of them, and if they are a substantial value price early sometimes there’s an opportunity to back your judgment and get on them before the rest of the public catches on.

Nadia Horne: Also if horses have had a really good lead up run?

Dean The Trial Spy: Yeah, look my best pre-post betting result probably was taking the VRC Derby-Oaks double at around 150/1 in 2009 with Monaco Consul and Faint Perfume, about a month before those races. Faint Perfume was a Bart Cummings trained filly, had won in her first prep, was bred to stay by Shamardal out of a Zabeel mare and had come from last and flown home over an unsuitable 1200m for 5th first up, so looked to be going well, clearly was going to be set for the Oaks and was around the $15 mark. I often like to wait until their first run and at least see that they’ve come up and have time to make the targeted race and are going well.

Nadia Horne: Also, when the horse is prepared by an excellent trainer, who does have a good record or a positive history in a certain race.

Dean The Trial Spy: That’s right, Bart Cummings had won 8 VRC Oaks prior to Faint Perfume, you know Gai Waterhouse has won 5 Golden Slippers, so it’s worth paying attention to different trainers and knowing the types of horses they are best at training, but particularly the types of races they like to target.

Nadia Horne: One other thing to take into consideration is positive comments regarding a horse’s ability or work.

Dean The Trial Spy: Yeah, in that double I mentioned I found Monaco Consul mainly as I heard Mike Moroney mention in the media that it was the best horse he had trained since Xcellent. Xcellent had won 3 Group 1s and this horse had just won a maiden so it was a big statement, the horse was coming over from NZ for the Derby, it was by Pentire another great staying sire, (breeding is another element you can look at with these big races) and was a double figure price as well. The horse came out and won the Spring Champion and the Derby so I’m happy to back trainers at times particularly when they make statements as big as that and the early value is there. We all recall Gai Waterhouse mentioning that P_____ would win the Slipper after winning the first 2YO race or the season. So, sometimes you do have to back these guys they do know what they’re talking about.

Nadia Horne: Also, you should look to, if you are betting a long way out, that your horse can handle all track conditions?

Dean The Trial Spy: This is a very important one, people make the assumption that a race will be run on a dry track when they are thinking about early betting, but how often do we see big races run on wet tracks? It happens all the time. The interesting thing with Faint Perfume and Monaco Consul is they had both won on wet tracks previously so I was comfortable that they would handle it if it rained, in the end it didn’t but I at least knew I wouldn’t be ripping up my ticket and would have value, genuine chances regardless of the weather. Another big pre-post success I had was Bold Glance who I backed at 200/1 and $51 the place for the Doncaster a few years back in early betting, again only around a month before the race. The horse had won on a heavy 10 a month before the race in QLD, and lo and behold on Doncaster day the track was a heavy 10 and the horse lobs in at $51 a place which was bigger odds than his win price on the day, so the opportunities are there.

Nadia Horne: And also you can, if you take these things into consideration, find really good odds pre-post.

Dean The Trial Spy: Well this is the key, the markets in pre-post betting are very high as we’ve discussed so you need to ensure you aren’t taking low prices on runners so far out when you are often likely to get a better price on the day, if the horse even makes it to the race at all. But if you find great value odds and you’ve identified something in them, some of these factors that we’ve mentioned here and you think you’ve got the price that you think quite likely a horse will _____ continues to run well in lead up races then the opportunities are there to back your judgment and take it.

Nadia Horne: Brilliant, thanks Dean!

Dean The Trial Spy: Thanks Nadia!

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