In this radio interview on RSN - Radio & Sport conducted by Nadia Horne, Dean Evans from Winning Edge Investments continues to talk about the statistics of leading trainers, their profitability, prizemoney and the track conditions where they excel.
 

Read the Interview transcription here: 

Nadia Horne: Twenty nine past eleven. Dean the Trial Spy is with us and today we’re going to continue our chat about trainers and what we’ll do is profile them, talk about their profitability around certain distance ranges, their prize money at certain tracks, track conditions, which trainers should excel on all conditions, runs in a prep, where their peak performances tend to lie and also their days since their last start, meeting type – whether you’re talking about country, city or provincial and also, just also how they perform as far as their SP ranking on the program. So they are important things that you take into doing the form in particular with this trainer profiling. Dean, it is an important thing that we do have to look at, because it gives us just an insight into how these trainers do their task, do their job, and where these horses are likely to peak and where’s the best to make a profit out of it. 

Dean Evans: Absolutely. It gives you a really interesting insight into I think two things. Firstly, the different styles of the trainers. They’ve each got different sort of styles in terms of at what point in preparation they like to peak horses, where their horses tend to win, you know, whether it’s sort of in the country or provincials or in the city. And also, interestingly though, is how the market perceives them and so where the market might be getting them wrong because they’ve got a certain picture in their mind about what the trainer is like and therefore the results might actually be different. 

Nadia Horne: Okay. Well, let’s talk about a few of the main ones and I know you touched on this a bit last week as well, but, Team Hawkes, where do they sort of sit into the mix? 

Dean Evans: Very, very profitable Team Hawkes, since they started. A 9% profit on turnover which is pretty huge when we’re looking at it. Just out of SP and New South Wales totes, you know, they were very, very profitable. Across all distance ranges as well which, unlike a lot of other trainers, you know, they were very consistent basically across all distance ranges. The vast majority of their profits were on sort of the good and dead tracks. Not that they were unprofitable on wet tracks, but just, you know, dead and good tracks generated the vast majority of those profits.  First up runners were very good and what was interesting however with them was, at the prize money levels anything above from 40K which is sort of your midweek level above, very profitable. But under that was actually quite unprofitable and then we split it out also by country, provincial and metro. Country and provincial were actually unprofitable and metro highly profitable. So it seems as though any of the sort of lower horses they’ve got there are being really over bet by the market in the country and provincials, but the metropolitan runners are just massively profitable with 22% profit on turnover for metro for Team Hawkes. 

Nadia Horne: Okay, well that’s something that we really need to hone in on when doing a metro form on Team Hawkes unclear 2:48. What about Peter Snowden?

Dean Evans: Another that since, since they left Godolphin and started, I’ve just got the data from there. 14% profit on turnover backing every runner, which again is substantial. Interestingly, virtually all of that is 1100 and 1200 meters. So, again not unprofitable in the other distances, but just highly profitable over those distances and virtually all the profits generated sort of around between that 40 and that 80K prize money mark, which again, is basically metro midweek and metro Saturday type racing. Profitable on all tracks except heavy, so the heavy track runners did tend to disappoint and interestingly, they weren’t profitable first up. There was a loss on turnover of around 30%, so basically you know, their first starters were profitable and second up was when their runners really, really begin to excel.  

Nadia Horne: Anthony Cummings?

Dean Evans: Um, Anthony was a 5.75% loss on turnover. The only distance ranges that were really strongly profitable were around the 1300 to 1400 meter mark and he, unlike the other two, generated very large profits actually, around the 20 to 30K prize money mark and again that was shown in the analysis on the provincials where he had 11% profit on turnover, so very strong at the provincials. Um, but less so in the metropolitan area and he was also one um, the opposite of Peter Snowden, where he was quite profitable on heavy tracks, but less so on the others. Um, and the other stand out was first up runners. His first up runners actually had 16% profit on turnover, um, over the past year and so it looks like the market might be undervaluing his first up runners.

Nadia Horne: Okay, that’s something you’ve really got to take into consideration. What about Bart and James Cummings?

Dean Evans: Um, a 12% loss on turnover, which sort of suggests it may be just a stable that again is over bet due to their notoriety. Um, interesting like, a lot of their results were similar to Anthony. With those being father and son, they might have similar training styles. Also, they were profitable on heavy tracks and also they were profitable with first up runners to sort of third up runners and runners that have sort of run within the last 13 days that were sort of backing up reasonably quickly. What was interesting in the sort of distance ranges was actually that great profits were generated around the 900 to 1100 meter mark, which sort of suggests perhaps that you know, everybody know Bart Cummings is the trainer of stayers and the Melbourne Cup legend that he is, but it may be the market therefore under rates his runners when they’re running over very short distances and he’s obviously got the capability of training those to great success as well.  

Nadia Horne:  Gerald Ryan. There’s always a thought that Gerald’s very good with horses first up.  

Dean Evans: Yeah, a loss of 4% on turnover in total and you’re bang on correct with the first up runners. In fact, it’s a big bright beacon. 51% profit on turnover on first up runners and significant losses, really, on most of the others. So, he is just an absolute gun at getting them right first up and, even though people might believe that, the market certainly isn’t factoring him in anywhere near as much as it should.

Nadia Horne: Hmm, well that’s an amazing number, isn’t it? It’s huge. You wouldn’t see that across anything else.

Dean Evans: No, nothing like that. It really is almost 102 bets for 21 winners. So a 20% strike rate on his first up runners and obviously the markets nipping a lot of them. I think the average price was around eight dollars for the winners, so a very substantial profit on his first up runners. 

Nadia Horne: Well, we’re going to have to take note of anything Gerald’s got first up. What about Robert Smerdon? 

Dean Evans: Yeah, well, just a 2% loss on turnover, which is pretty solid. Um, anything 1200 meters and less was quite a large loss. So basically, with Robert, it seems like those runners are being over bet and anything from 1300 meters plus is profitable. He’s another, quite interesting, on dry tracks quite a significant loss but on heavy and slow tracks, on the wet going, very, very profitable and also one where first starters and first uppers seem to be over bet with losses, but second up and third up, that’s where his runners really excel and that’s, well that’s certainly where he’s generating the majority of his profits as well as in the metropolitan area. 

Nadia Horne: And what about Mick Price? 

Dean Evans: Um, 10% loss on turnover, overall. Another where the wet tracks were highly profitable as opposed to the dry tracks and his runners again, another where they really shone second up. But, Mick Price, I think his runners tend to be very, very over bet, the first starters and also first up, both of those are around a 25% loss on turnover. So, it seems as though the Mick Price stable, you know, again that’s probably a market imperception where, you know, there’s a belief that his runners are really ready to go and as a result they probably just over bet on those early, early stages and the results aren’t unclear 7:59.

Nadia Horne: And what about Mark Kavanagh?

Dean Evans: Um. Yeah, it’s interesting, Mark’s sort of rebuilding his stables. Obviously an outstanding trainer, but probably had a tough year and it sort of shows in the 20% loss on turnover overall. Although he was quite strong from sort of 1700 meters plus. So, with his stayers and the other horses, he did have a magical win the other day. A bit, a bit sort of difficult to find many profitable edges over the past year with Mark, just I think with him rebuilding his stable. 

Nadia Horne: You’ve given us a really good insight. Thank you, Dean. 

Dean Evans: Alright. Thanks Nadia. 

Nadia Horne: Dean the Trial Spy. It’s twenty…
 

Listen to Profiling Statistics On Leading Trainers Part 1 here

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