Does second up syndrome exist?

In this interview conducted by Warren Huntly on RSN - Racing & Sports, Dean The Trial Spy covers a range of statistics and their impact on profitability for runners second up for a spell, including last start finishing position, track condition and trainers.

Read the Interview transcription here: 

Warren Huntly: Twenty seven to twelve, and we’ve tracked down Dean the Trial Spy who was uh…we were thinking you might have been running a covert operation and you might have had to put your phone down there, spying on some trials there, Dean.

Dean Evans: [Laughs] Yeah, sorry mate, unclear 0:12.

Warren Huntly: Initially, let’s look at what, part of the racing vernacular, is ‘the second up syndrome’, and obviously there’s factors that go into determining whether that affects a horse or not. I’m just wondering, what are some of the significant factors you look at when you are talking about what’s loosely termed ‘the second up syndrome’?

Dean Evans: Yeah, you know, we sort of thought we’d do some analysis on this, and we analysed between 2012 and 2014 unclear 0:43. We just looked at the runners who were sort of in the first 5 in the market, and all we’ve done is look at some things like profitability by runs from a spell, to see if second up is any worse than being first up, or third up or further on. You have a last start finishing position, the track condition and also going for a number of the trainers, with their training methodologies, whether some of them get their horses to go early compared to some that like to get them going deeper in the preparation.

Warren Huntly: Well, one of the parameters you looked at, you mentioned there, was profitability by runs from a spell, and you’re saying you are starting off with horses that were in the first 5 or so in the market between 2012 and 2014. We’re talking about profitability from runs from a spell, what does that tell us? What do we glean from that?

Dean Evans: Well, you know, unclear 1:36 9% loss on turnover, as you would expect, unclear 1:42 every runner. First up is about bang on that mark, second up is slightly worse at minus 10.9%, as is third up at minus 11%, they’re around 2% below the average. What is interesting, looking at the data, is you need to look at fifth up, sixth up, seventh up, eighth up, ninth up. They’re all sort of 1 to 2% better than the average, which sort of suggests, you know, potentially, not necessarily that second up syndrome is necessarily there, but perhaps more that the market at the moment is over betting horses early up in their preparation that aren’t fit enough to compete and under betting the horses that really did do their preparation, had a few runs and tend to be able to hold that form now, with trainers training in the manner rather than trying to get them up and going early.

Warren Huntly: Yeah, I mean, we might know more about trainers methodology nowadays than we did in years gone by, but I mentioned when your phone dropped out that, in Victoria, I look at stables that come to mind, the likes of David Hayes and Darren Weir, even Danny O’Brien, who’ve got other properties where they can mix up the workload that they use to train a horse and change their environment, and that, I think in modern times is helping extend the preparation of a lot of modern day trained horses.

Dean Evans: Yeah, absolutely, I agree 100% and we’ll go through that at the end, but you can certainly see that there are certain trainers who, you know, don’t feel the need to get their horses up and going first up, second up, because they’ve got the wonderful facilities available to them and can really keep their horses up and going for eight, nine runs in preparation and still be getting them to the peak a couple of times in a preparation and continue to maintain that form.

Warren Huntly: Last up finishing position, how does that affect their statistics?

Dean Evans: One of the main things that are interesting is that, rather than sort of a first up win taking a lot out of the horse, it actually seems to be a positive with a minus 4.7% POT for a horse finishing third at its first up run, which is 6% improvement on the benchmark, and second, running second was minus 7.8, which was still 3% better than the benchmark. What was interesting was, horses that ran fourth or fifth in their first up run were minus 17 and minus 13, which is below the benchmark, which again suggests that people that are looking at horses that run third, fourth, fifth first up, to really improve second up, those horses are being over bet and it’s really the horses that have been tuned up and run first or second in their first up run, that are then going on and still performing well second up and the market is perhaps looking too hard at the ones that have been beaten, rather than the obvious. 

Warren Huntly: That’s a good point. One issue that will be interesting to me is the track condition, because we always hear people talk about ‘Well, the horse might have had a gut buster first up on a heavy track’, I’d be interested to know if the track condition plays a part.

Dean Evans: Yeah, we looked at the day’s track condition and basically confirmed two all the way to soft seven is pretty much slightly better than the benchmark, but basically around average. But, on a heavy 8 to 10, the horses are running second up on those sorts of tracks are minus 16%, which is a good 6% below the benchmark. So it suggests, and we see the same with first up data, that you really have to be fit on those heavy tracks and even horses that have had a first up run are still not quite fit enough to do the job second up. You know, when you are looking at those really wet tracks, you want to be looking at those horses that have been performing, you know, that have had a few runs under their belt to get that fitness up.

Warren Huntly: Certainly it’s a question for another day, but one thing I’d factor into that too is, when you think a horse has had a tough run first up, either by the fact that it had to work very hard, or it was on a testing track, I think the time between runs, before it goes to a second up run, is certainly a statistic that could also have some influence. But I wouldn’t want to discuss that on today as a question without notice, but I think it’s certainly a valid point for those type of factors that we’re talking about.

Dean Evans: Yeah, definitely. Definitely agree with that.

Warren Huntly: And there are certainly some trainers who seem to be good at getting horses to peak early in preparations, either first up and second up, and you mentioned, sometimes the horses that fire first up, or run well first up, tend to perform well second up, and that might be because they’ve had that good, solid fitness grounding for their first up run.  What does a look at the trainers tell us?   

Dean Evans: Yeah, so I had a look at all trainers that had 300 or more second up runners over that 3 year period. In terms of the worst performance, Chris Waller was minus 16.5%, David Hayes was minus 29%, Darren Weir was minus 23%, John Thompson minus 28%, Rob Heathcote minus 20% and Tony Mc Evoy minus 16%. What’s interesting, is sort of what you touched on before, which is that a lot of those trainers are the ones that have, you know the likes of Hayes, Weir, Mc Evoy, have sort of second facilities, you know, more country facilities, so they are able to keep horses up longer and so it’s obviously nothing to do with their ability as trainers, it’s simply the fact that these trainers are not trimming the horse without first or second up, they’re really waiting to get them deeper into a preparation and get them peaking later, but the market is still backing their runners as though they are fully wound up when they might not be.

Warren Huntly: I suppose the reality is that, with the depth of quality of horse and trainers that we have now, that it’s virtually, particularly with horses that are suited over a bit more ground and stay, it’s virtually impossible to have them at their peak for every run. You’ve got to pick a target and work towards that target. And I suppose a consequence of that is that you are probably going to be having a number of runs in races where you’re realistically not a strong winning chance.

Dean Evans: Yes, that’s exactly right. It’s about identifying who those trainers are and if we look at the good side, trainers who do well with second up runners are Paul Kerry with a real stand out of 27% profit on turnover backing his second up runners; Robbie Griffiths 11.7% backing his second up runners; Gai Waterhouse was about breakeven which, given the size of the stables, is still really significant, they are still 10% better than benchmark; and others, Joe Pride was minus 2.5%, Chris Lee is minus 3%, Mick Price minus 4%, unclear 8:25 minus 2%. So all of these trainers, are trainers who the market is underestimating the ability of their horses to peak second up and obviously is under-selling that, because obviously those trainers are performing very well compared to the benchmark with their second up runners and are obviously focussing on getting them going early.

Warren Huntly: Well, I suppose the reality is, Dean, and it’s not unexpected, that the answer is not totally straightforward, if you are trying to identify whether there is such a thing as ‘the second up syndrome’. There are so many other factors that you do need to consider, but if you do delve into them and look at the stats, as you have done, you can find some areas that are probably over bet and some areas that are under bet, and ultimately that can probably lead to some opportunities.

Dean Evans: I think that’s the key. I think overall, ‘the second up syndrome’ could explain a very small percentage of performances, but I think it’s more about how hard the trainers worked to get the horse tuned up and whether the horse is fit enough to do the job on the day.

Warren Huntly: Terrific work, Dean. Great analysis.

Dean Evans: Thanks very much, Warren.

Warren Huntly: Dean the Trial Spy there, with his look at ‘the second up syndrome’ and some really interesting takes on statistics that go to understanding that situation. Time for us to…

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