Saturday 13th March

+0.4u at 5% POT

1 winners from 3 selections

33% Strike Rate

Winners: California Zimbol $3.20

Comments: A nice win by California Zimbol, Too Close The Sun did a lot of work on a fast pace and Criaderas disappointed.

Selection Review

Too Close The Sun $3.40 (UNP) – his early speed was considerably faster here than his first up run (fastest early speed rating of the meeting) and he just couldn’t match it late. His performance was 3L better than last start but well off that of the winner.

California Zimbol $3.20 (1st for a 6.4u return) – I felt that she had shown me enough in the trials to back up the metrics and she didn’t disappoint. Her rating was very good and she should have further improvement this prep.

Criaderas $2.70 (UNP) – he was well supported late in betting but did not have enough late speed to make up any real ground, he may have been flat from a big late exertion first up.

Summary

A small win on the day, Aurora’s Symphony got himself cast in the barriers and was a late scratching, I felt he had a good chance given the very lacklustre rating the race produced.

March Results to Date

-7.6u at -54% POT

1 winner from 7 selections

14% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+48.7u at 13.7% POT

16/33 Winning Weeks

5/8 Winning Months

2/2 Winning Quarters

Long Term Model Results

76/121 Winning Days – 62.81%

19/26 Winning Months – 73.08%

8/8 Winning Quarters – 100.00%

41.5% Strike rate

+435u at 40.2% POT

Change To Selections And Staking

Most weeks there are selections that miss the cut for various reasons that end up winning, they are always among the winning chances in a race but there is enough to leave them out of a full selection. This gets extremely frustrating to watch so starting this week, I will be adding these selections on reduced stakes (1u or 0.5u pending price and level of confidence) as my review of these over the past 6 months has produced enough profit to start including them.

I will list these selections as Tier 2 selections with the standard selections as Tier 1 along with the stakes when the emails are sent to avoid any confusion.

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo