Week in Review

Saturday 16th January

11.6u at 116% POT

2 winners from 5 selections

40% Strike Rate

Winners: High ‘N’ Dry $6.30, Ration Aly $4.50

Comments: It was a big day of racing and my only goal was to start the year off on a positive note which we did despite some performances that were below expectation.

Selection Review

Shaik $2.45 (UNP) – well supported and given a Tommy Berry special meaning that he was taken too far back and asked to do too much. He was unable to get the job done despite running the 3rd best last 800m rating and 10th best last 400m/200m ratings of the meeting. The horse did all he could given the circumstances he was put in.

Ballistic Boy $4.20 (UNP) – he ran well below expectation, he pulled up with a slow recovery and also may not have appreciated the 7 day backup.

High ‘N’ Dry $6.30 (1st for a 12.6u return) – an excellent ride by young Will Price, he put him in a great position 3L off the lead at the 800m and made a strong sustained run to win very convincingly.

Terbium $3.90 (UNP) – not quite sure what to make of this run, he seemed to have every chance.

Ration Aly $4.50 (1st for a $9u return) – another great ride and the horse performed as expected for a nice win.

Summary

Overall it was a very good day and exactly the way I wanted to kick off 2021.

January Results to Date

11.6u at 116% POT

2 winners from 5 selections

40% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+45.3u at 15.5% POT

12/25 Winning Weeks

3/6 Winning Months

2/2 Winning Quarters

Long Term Model Results

72/113 Winning Days – 63.72%

17/24 Winning Months – 70.83%

8/8 Winning Quarters – 100.00%

42.5% Strike rate

+431.6u at 42.4% POT

2021 – A New Year

I hope that you all had an enjoyable Xmas and New Year period, between drinking too much and eating too much, I was able to spend some time reviewing my model and making a few minor adjustments without making any sweeping changes as I didn’t feel any were necessary. I did invest in a number of software upgrades that I believe will have a positive effect on the Speed Stars process and I am looking forward to what 2021 brings for all of us.

I chose not to make any investments in the first week back because I did not have sufficient level of confidence and I do not make selections for the sake of it. Given the strong start we had on Saturday, I believe the correct decision was made.

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo