Week in Review

Saturday 17th April

-1.4u at -31% POT

1 winners from 5 selections (5 betting races)

20% Strike Rate

Winners: La Mexicana $3.10

Comments: A very strong win by La Mexicana but a small loss for the day.

Selection Review

Tier 1

Nil

Tier 2

Caulfield

Race 5 La Mexicana $3.10 (1st for a 3.1u return) – a really solid performance after being well supported late in betting, she never looked like being beaten.

Race 8 Felicia $4.40 (3rd) – she was well supported $4.40 into $3.80 and actually ran very well recording a near identical figure to her last run before going for a spell. The 2nd horse ran about 1.5L above expectation and the winner has just gone to a whole new level improving 2L on his Mornington win.

Randwick

Race 4 Crystal Bound $3.30 (2nd 0.4L from a 3.3u return) – the Randwick track was considerably wetter than the official Good 4 suggested with the track racing around 5L slower than Good on average figures. Given the way this filly won at The Valley on debut, she may be a horse that really thrives on the drier surfaces.

Morphettville

Race 6 Instant Celebrity $4.40 (UNP) – she got very agitated behind the barriers and there was a decent drift in the market from $3.60 to $4.40 signalling that all may not be 100%. I have no issues at all with the selection given that Kemelpasa went on to win the G3 race later in day very comfortably by 2L given the way she trialled alongside this horse. I expect big improvement to come.

Ascot

Race 8 Kaymay $12.00 (UNP) – she was ridden completely upside down 3WNC on speed running almost 7L faster than her previous start to the 400m (on adjusted figures) and 10L slower over the last 400m. Had she been ridden cold and left for a solid run late, she almost certainly would have been able to contest the finish given the overall race figure was quite low.

April Results to Date

-5.4u at -36% POT

2 winners from 16 selections (14 betting races, 3 horses beaten by less than 1L for a 14.2u return)

13% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+43.2u at 11.7% POT

17/36 Winning Weeks

5/9 Winning Months (missed 2 weeks in March 2021 due to family reasons resulting in a loss)

3/3 Winning Quarters

Long Term Model Results

77/124 Winning Days – 62.10%

19/28 Winning Months – 67.86%

9/9 Winning Quarters – 100.00%

40.7% Strike rate

+429.5u at 39.2% POT

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo