Week in Review

Saturday 26th September

-2.4u at -17% POT

2 winners from 8 selections

25% Strike Rate

Winners: Windstorm $2.80, Instant Celebrity $3.00

Comments: Disappointing day with a strong favourite being found lame, 1 horse being so far back their race was over at the 400m, 2 horses heavily backed late being beaten and our final horse finding the quicksand at Caulfield.

Selection Review

Exemplar (UNP) – my model was all over this horse as were quite a lot of other when the horse went from $3.50 to $2.40, when he drifted back out to $3.00 before the race started I knew there was an issue and this was confirmed by his performance. He was found to be 4/5 lame in the off-foreleg which explains the poor performance but offers no consolation for those who backed him.

She’s Ideel  (UNP) – as I outlined in my preview, given she was 3rd up and carrying only 53.5kg I was hoping they would be more positive with her and actually give her a winning chance. When she was 13L off the lead at the 800m things looked bad and at the 400m she was still 8L off the leader and her race was over. It is so disappointing that trainers and jockey’s have no idea what their horses are and are not capable of and this horse was never going to make up 8L in 400m. She did make up 5L which was excellent but it was a poor ride and poor tactics that cost her a very winnable race.

Tyzone (UNP) – when I did the ratings for this race it became clear that if he could repeat his last start figure from the Theo Marks, he was going to be right in the finish. With the on speed inside bias that was evident by this time, the horse was allowed to race further forward after he jumped well but he could not offer anything in the straight.

Talamo (UNP 1.8L from a 5u return) – all the speed maps had him leading but he handed up the lead and this proved very costly, the race was an ugly tactical affair and when he started to warm up over the last 150m, he was not able to get a clear run and went to the line untested. This was a poor ride in my opinion and unacceptable when your horse is $2.50 into $1.90.

The Difference (2ND 0.5L from a 4.7u return) – no excuses for this horse, he simply did not perform at the same level as his previous start despite being heavily supported.

Windstorm (1ST 5.6u return) – all things pointed towards him running a big race and when the fence was off and the middle of the track became the place to be, I was very confident he would get the job done.

Instant Celebrity (1ST 6u return) – she is a high class filly who lived up to expectation and will be a horse the we will be on again at some point in the future.

Arcadia Queen (3RD 2.25L from a 6u return) – by this time of the day the fence was well and truly off and she was in the absolute worst part so we’ll never know just how close the race could have been had Russian Camelot not had the lane advantage. If we get a firm track for the Cox Plate and she has pulled up well, I believe she is still a live chance.

September Results

-0.8u at -1.6% POT

7 winners from 25 selections

28% Strike Rate

I make no excuses for coming up short this month, ultimately I am responsible for every winning and losing selection but it hurts when around 60u over the past month have been painfully close to going our way as we fell on the wrong side of variance.

The positive is we start a whole new month next week and history says we are on the verge of a variance swing back into our favour which has proven to be very profitable in the past, there is no reason to expect anything different when it happens again.

Overall Service Results

+23.6u at 16.6% POT

7/12 Winning Weeks

2/3 Winning Months

Long Term Model Results

65/92 Winning Days – 70.7%

16/21 Winning Months – 76.19%

44.8% Strike rate

+409.9u at 47.2% POT

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo