Having a spell from the punt - is there benefit to this for a pro punter?

It's a practice that's employed some very good form analysts and punters, including our own Dean Evans - the mastermind behind the Trial Spy and Dean's Tips services - who has used the winter period in the past to take a break from betting on multiple occassions.

We spoke to him to find out why a serial winner would do this.

We'll cut straight to it - why do you sometimes put your services such as Trial Spy or Dean's Tips on hold?

At various times throughout my six years providing betting advice to selected clients, I have put the service on 'hiatus' for a certain number of weeks or months. Part of that is to 'freshen up'. Just like horses have spells or let-ups, or people have holidays or annual leave, it's vitally important to take time away, reboot, re-energise, and come back eager and excited to get back into the next phase. Detailed form analysis and betting is hard work and a seven-day-a-week activity.

Another important element is to take time away to assess previous selections and find what has been working well, and what hasn't. 

How do you go about this process?

To do this, I use my database. It contains an analysis tool that enables me to assess my bets against around 100 different variables. To give you an idea, here's a selection of those variables:

Race Weight Rating
Race Speed Base rating
Prize money of the race
The handicap weight spread in the race
Day of the week
Track condition (Fast, Good, Soft, Heavy)
Predicted race speed
Track type (Metro, Prov, Country and Rural)
Track Location
Race Class
Race Age restriction
Race Sex restriction
Race weight type
My Speed Rating rank
My Speed Rating Price
My Speed Rating
My Speed Rating Price Value to Next figure
Consensus panel rating
Consensus Panel Rank
Consensus Value to Next figure
Speed Rating Rank
Speed Rating Value to Next figure
Handicapper Rating Rank
Handicap Rating Value to Next figure
Average Prize money Rank
API Value to Next figure
Win Percentage Rank
Place Percentage Rank
Intelligence Rating Rank
Intelligence Rating Value to Next figure
Peak Distance rating Rank
Peak Distance Rating Value to Next figure
Relative Value Rating Rank
Relative Value Rating Value to Next figure
Position In Running Rank
PIR Rating Value to Next percentage figure
Indicators Y/N
L Ranks
W Ranks
D Ranks
Last 3 starts form line
Horses age
Horses sex
Number of career starts
Today's Barrier
Handicap Weight
Weight over minimum weight
Weight below top weight
Weight Value to Next figure
Jockey allowance
Current run in the horses prep (1 = first up, 2 = second up, etc)
Days since last start
Finishing position last start
Margin Last Start
Turn to Finish positions gained last start
Track Last start
Track Condition Last start
Favourite last start Y/N
Starting price Last start
Horse firmed from its opening price
Position in Running Type
Jockey Rating
Trainer rating
Jockey name
Trainer name
Distance change to last start
Barrier change to last start
Weight change to last start (includes allowances)
Race Weight Rating difference between this and last start
Race Strength BASE rating diff between this and last start
Horses Track condition suitability
Horses Best Distance Range
Average prize money index
Prizemoney won
Career Win Percentage
Career Place Percentage
Distance Win percentage
Distance Place percentage
Track Win percentage
Track Place percentage
Track condition Win percentage
Track condition Place percentage
First Up Win percentage
First Up Place Percentage
Number of wins
Number of Places
Home track today

Performance against each of these factors is assessed, both in terms of Units Profit and POT%, and then cross-referenced against other variables.

What do you mean by cross-referencing other variables?

There are endless examples to explain this. But basically it's using filters until you can be confident you have obtained the correct statistical information to make an informed decision.

Just as a made-up example: I assess all my bets for a service, and find I am not profitable with selections under $4, but very profitable between $4 and $10, then not profitable between $10 and $50, then very profitable at odds of $50+.

I could leave it there, but perhaps it's different based on whether the races are metro/city class, or provincial/country class? So I can look at that, and may find that my bets under $10 for metro/city races are unprofitable, and over $10 profitable, whilst for provincial/country races my bets under $10 are profitable, but my bets over $10 are not profitable.

I may then want to assess based on track conditions (dry vs wet) to see if my profitability on favourites or outsiders is driven by dry tracks or wet tracks... etc, etc, etc. This continual cross referencing is done to ensure we are making intelligent decisions that aren't driven by incorrect or incomplete data.

I can also test for certain factors to eliminate bets entirely. 

How else do you analyse your database?

At times I actually download all races over a certain period, or for a certain track, and determine the profitability based on backing horses using the variables listed above. This helps me hone in on where the greatest market edges are compared with the database.

For example: are speed ratings, or weight ratings, or consensus ratings, or peak distance ratings the most profitable on their own? What about if you intertwine them with position-in-run factors? Are they more profitable on metro/city or provincial/country tracks? Certain distances? Certain tracks? Certain track conditions? The list is exhaustive.

Is the hard work worth it?

Things changed dramatically in mid-2015 when I performed my first set of database analysis for Dean's Tips, which led to around 400 units profit over the next 3 years. I did a similar process recently with Trial Spy, and delivered 100 units profit (a doubling of the betting bank) in 3 months. Edges certainly shift and change over time as different variables become overpriced or underpriced in the marketplace, so you have to put in the time and effort, or you get left behind.

It's important during periods of downturn to rectify errors that may have crept into your selection process. There's no beginning or end when it comes to betting, you are just constantly evolving and going through profitable and non-profitable periods, but as long as you stick with successful core methods, evolve, change those that aren't working, and focus long term, you always stay in the game and you always win in the long term. 

Ultimately the Trial Spy & Dean's Tips services have combined to deliver over 1,200 units profit in six years of operation. There's no other horse racing service provider that has come remotely close to those numbers, so the analysis is certainly working, and the members get the advantage! Thanks for your time.