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The US Open at Pebble Beach
The US Open is run by the USGA, roundly criticised over the past few years for demanding a golf course that produces a score around par or 284 in this case. Pebble Beach is a beautiful place and whilst there is some criticism of the links it is a magnificent site and a great test when the wind blows and the course is firm and fast. Conditions suggest that this will be the case.
Pebble has tiny greens. Much rough including surrounds which favour great iron players and good putters with nerves of steel. That’s Tiger if you don’t know. But there’s lots of luck with lies in the rough. It’s a lot easier to chop out a wedge than a 5 iron and thus as always now the longer hitters retain an advantage. But shorter hitters inc Kite and McDowell have won.
To identify the winning chances at the right odds, let’s look at who wins at Pebble Beach in previous Opens. Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Tom Kite, Tiger Woods and Graeme McDowell. All vastly experienced and proven on windy links courses. All had played in Europe and McDowell beat Gregory Havret Another European.
So to fit that mould we have amongst the favourites McIlroy, Koepka, Woods, Mickelsen, Spieth, Rose, Adam Scott and Molinari. Mickelsen won here earlier in the year. Scott at $36 and Molinari at $50 are the only two of those I think are at the right odds or over.
So searching a bit wider we have Marc Leishman at $120, Matthew Fitzpatrick at $200, Matt Wallace at $210, Danny Willett at $330, Erik Van Rooyen ($510)
Bernstein Weisberger $600, Justin Harding $600. All in form and having significant success recently and in recent majors.
I have soft spot for one who doesn’t often win, hasn’t much Links or Pebble experience but has an unbelievable money winning record and it’s not Kuchar it’s Charles Howell 111 at $600. He will pop up at one major because he’s just too good and too consistent not too.
I’ve also tipped a couple of up and comers in Collin Morikawa, Marcus Kinhuot who stood over Matt Wallace on a Links recently and Ollie Schneirjans who has impressed me previously.
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