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WA Tips & Ratings: Winterbottom Stakes preview

Friday, 29 November 2019

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WA TIPS & RATINGS PREVIEW

(Click here to view a downloadable PDF of this preview)

Full-time professional punter Cameron O’Brien heads up the WA Tips & Ratings service for Winning Edge Investments and gives his expert insight into Saturday’s Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot. Perth Carnival time is a proven money-maker for our WA guru. This time last year members profits soared to make 61 units profit ($6,100 profit for a 100-unit member in just four months - Dec to Mar).

RACE PREVIEW: G1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m)

SPEED MAP: I think the pace will be good, solid even. I map MISTY METAL in front, but I think HEY DOC and HOME OF THE BRAVE will press on, especially HOME OF THE BRAVE, drawn widest. So, MISTY METAL likely hands up to those two and takes the trail, with VITAL SILVER and VALOUR ROAD getting good runs fairly handy too. I think the pace will be genuine though so no one will be very disadvantaged, however TREKKING is going to need luck to get a good passage from his likely spot of back on the rail.

Click here to view a detailed visual speed map.

RUNNER-BY-RUNNER ANALYSIS

HORSE NAME	RATED PRICE	COMMENT
TREKKING	$4.2	Class galloper of the race, however this is his first look at Ascot. It’s a track that generally favours on-pacers and he'll be back - will need a great ride.
MALAGUERRA	$46.3	Eight-year-old having a crack at this race for the third time, yet to win it and he's not getting any younger and is drawn wide.
HEY DOC	$24.0	Six-year-old second-up off a 427-day spell. Fair effort resuming at Sandown and he can likely get outside the lead here. The query is if his best is behind him?
ROCK MAGIC	$19.3	Evergreen 10-year-old back from a little trip east, not sure he can find his peaks of 18 months ago when he was a spritely eight-year-old, but maps well.
HOME OF THE BRAVE	$29.9	Eight-year-old whose best these days is on softer tracks and drawn the widest I can't see him getting in unless he burns to lead.
DURENDAL	$111.3	Eight-year-old and he hasn't come back in great form this prep, however does map well.
VIRIDINE	$10.0	Racing at his top, first look over here but drawn middle so should get a good run and hard to stop.
VALOUR ROAD	$37.2	On the up four-year-old who does need a new level but is back well and goes well here.
ENDLESS DRAMA	$57.7	Eight-year-old resuming after 91 days, now with Tony Pike ex-Waller, won on a bog at Te Rapa first go for him.
VITAL SILVER	$6.4	Loves Ascot, got to a big new peak at the Valley last start, query repeating the 115 but maps in the right spot.
SPIRIT OF VALOR	$29.9	Has enough ability for this but query how well he's going?
STAGEMAN	$24.0	Solid galloper this prep, he needs another level on what he's been doing though.
FLIRTINI	$10.3	Big win last start when she charged home, in great form this prep.
MISTY METAL	$12.9	Went too quick last time, third-up now and ready to peak, chance at odds.
DUBIOUS	$18.9	Only three-year-old in the race, just fair last time but is better than that.

CAMERON’S VERDICT

As I indicated in the map, the Winterbottom should be a genuinely run affair, which should give all runners their chance to win.

The race fave is TREKKING, who at the time of writing is a solid $2.45 to $2.50 favourite at most places.

TREKKING is the best horse in the race, he has been rating around 115 at his most recent three runs, making him a high class sprinter and the one to beat here.

However, this is his first look at Ascot, and he will likely be back in the field, likely on the rail.

From that spot Kerrin McEvoy is going to need to find the right passage into the race, or get to the middle of the track. He is my top rater but I can't come into the price he is, in this big field especially.

VITAL SILVER is the overlay in the race for mine. He comes off an excellent 2nd in the Manikato at MV rating 115 (same as TREKKING's top) and the winner of that race LOVING GABY has since franked that form by improving on that figure next start.

VITAL SILVER loves Ascot, maps ideally and will get every possible.

VIRIDINE is a solid chance also, racing well, some query a strong 1200m but has drawn well and has Oliver, I could be interested in him as a value bet too.

FLIRTINI is flying, she will need to go to a new level but she looks to have it in her and the pace will really suit her too.

Good race!

CAMERON'S TOP RATERS