Winning Edge golf expert previews The Open

The 148th Open starts this afternoon.

The average age of the last 10 winners is 34 and the player’s average position on the world’s rankings (OGWR) was 40th.

Bernd Weisberger fits that bill and he won last week’s Scottish Open in the same pattern Phil Mickelson did a couple of years ago.

A history of longshots

The reality is that longshot winners appear regularly in the Open records.

Kel Nagle beat Arnie, Todd Hamilton won his only tour event, John Daly won at St Andrews, Louis Oosthuizen, Zach Johnson also won at long odds - both lucked in with the weather also at St Andrews when Tiger and Rory got dreadful draws and ugly weather.

This year the tournament heads to the “new” venue of Royal Portrush where Englishman Max Faulkner won his only Open the last time to famed event was staged at the venue in 1951.

The links is considered one of the best of the Open courses, with new holes added to bolster a previously weak finish.

The weather is predicted to be bad, Irish bad, rain and flukey winds can derail the best.

Finding players over the odds

For that reason our winning philosophy of backing the players who are over the odds appears to have more chance of success.

Tiger is clearly not 100% fit, but his lifetime record, his win in the Masters and his great success on first time venues, suggest he’ll be in it.

I expect a slow start and that’s why we have an in-play bet 10 points above the start price.

Marc Leishman might be the best wind player and he grew up at Warrnambool, one of the windiest links courses in the world. We’ve tipped him at $80 as to win he’ll need a good start.

Of the other favourites, Rory being a Northern Irishman like Daly will be the fan favourite, but his record in closing majors is abysmal in the last five years. I never like Dustin Johnson in a major. Brooks Koepka has a great track record, but not in the Open, despite his formative professional years spent in Europe.

Francesco Molinari is one I think will contend, and whilst I’m not tipping him yet, at the odds I may include him if he drifts after rounds one or two (weather dependent).

We have put quite a lot of top 20 bets in and as last week proved, one or two successes makes us a tidy profit.

Picking the winner of the Open is difficult, but our strategy is proven to be the best for profitable trading and backing big priced winners.